Hot and cold, safe and unsafe: Evaluating the impact of extreme temperatures on work-related accidents in China

We investigate how extreme temperatures impact work-related accidents across 411 cities in China from 2015 to 2019. Using a linear probability model, we find a significant causal link between rising temperatures and workplace accidents, with a 10°C increase leading to a 0.09 % rise in accident probability. Our analysis shows that temperatures over 24–26°C markedly increase accident risk, particularly in outdoor-intensive industries like construction and public facility management, with southern regions facing higher hazards due to prolonged heat exposure. Robustness checks, including lagged and lead temperature effects, confirm the consistency of our findings, reinforcing the direct link between environmental conditions and accident occurrence. This research contributes a comprehensive, causal view of temperature’s effect on workplace safety in a developing context, emphasizing the urgent need for temperature-sensitive safety protocols. For developing countries such as China, climate-resilient labor policies, including adaptive work schedules, cooling breaks, and shaded workspaces, are critical to protect workers and sustain productivity as global temperatures rise. Our findings lay a foundation for policy actions aimed at bolstering occupational safety standards to address escalating climate risks.