Fraction of Cancer Attributable to Occupational Carcinogens in Korea between 2015 and 2030.

Purpose: To estimate the contribution of occupational carcinogens to cancer incidence and mortality in the Korean population between 2015 and 2030.

Materials and methods: We selected occupational carcinogens classified as International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) Group 1 and estimated the prevalence of exposure using data from the Korean CARcinogen EXposure (K-CAREX) and previous studies. Relative risks were calculated using published literature through a meta-analysis. Levin's formula was used to estimate population attributable fraction (PAF) while considering a 15-year latency period between exposure, cancer incidence, and death. Additionally, trends in cancer PAF were calculated up to 2030, assuming constant relative risks and a 15-year latency period.

Results: In 2015, the PAFs for occupational carcinogen-related cancer incidence and mortality were 1.00% (men: 1.75%, women: 0.15%) and 1.97% (men: 2.97%, women: 0.33%), respectively, with asbestos being the largest contributor (incidence: 0.48%; mortality: 0.98%). In 2030, the PAFs for occupational carcinogen-related cancer incidence and mortality were 0.34% (men: 0.62%, women: 0.07%) and 0.80% (men: 1.22%; women: 0.15%), respectively, with diesel engine exhaust being projected to become the largest contributor by 2030 (incidence: 0.16%, mortality: 0.41%).

Conclusion: The PAFs of occupational carcinogens in Korea between 2015 and 2030 were estimated to be very low in the general population, and the values are expected to decrease over time owing to various regulations to prevent exposure to occupational carcinogens. Therefore, while regulating well-known occupational carcinogens, efforts should be made to monitor newly identified ones to ensure prompt implementation of preventive measures.