全球痘暴发：综合流行病学评估（2022-2024）。

IF 4 3区医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Journal of Infection and Public Health Pub Date : 2025-09-04 DOI:10.1016/j.jiph.2025.102969

Shraddha Tiwari , Thakur Dhakal , Youhyun Son , Tulsi Paudel , Madhu Sudhan Atteraya , Jaewan Lee , Jang Gab Sue , Yeonsu Oh

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引用次数: 0

摘要

背景：全球人类猴痘疫情已成为一个重大公共卫生问题，在2022年5月至2024年11月期间，全球126个地区确诊病例超过11.5万例。在此背景下，我们检查了“我们的世界数据”门户网站中记录的正在发生的疫情的基本再现数（R0）、加倍时间、病死率和国家间连通性。方法：采用9天平均感染期检测流行病学参数R0和倍增时间。利用疫情的相关性和共现性对网络进行分析。使用连接图的程度和中间性中心性测量来检查疾病中心区域。此外，利用Moran's I进行空间自相关分析来评估分布趋势。结果：R0和倍增时间因地区而异，全球平均值分别为1.046天和373.12天。这一发现表明，持续传播是有限的；然而，疾病爆发呈指数级蔓延的可能性仍然存在。全球空间自相关分析显示m痘病例呈中等聚类（Moran’s I = 0.067， p值= 0.075）。疫情连通性分析显示，疾病在国家间传播显著，表明快速跨界传播。德国、美国、澳大利亚、意大利、比利时和西班牙等国家被确定为疾病控制中心。结果还显示了通过网络分析确定的全球案例的相互关联性。结论：了解疫情动态、全球空间分布模式和连通性对于推进“同一个健康”方针和减轻未来疾病风险至关重要。调查结果揭示了全球m痘传播的风险，强调需要继续进行监测、接触者追踪、检疫措施和全球合作，以帮助遏制m痘的全球传播。

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Global Mpox outbreaks: A comprehensive epidemiological assessment (2022–2024)

Background

The global outbreak of monkeypox (Mpox) in humans has become a substantial public health concern, with over 115,000 confirmed cases across 126 territories worldwide between May 2022 and November 2024. In this context, we examined the basic reproduction number (R₀), doubling time, case fatality rate, and inter-country connectivity of ongoing outbreaks documented in Our World in Data portal.

Methods

Epidemiological parameters R₀ and doubling time were examined using a 9-day mean infectious period. Networks were analyzed using correlation and co-occurrence of outbreaks. The disease hub regions were examined using connectivity graphs’ degree and betweenness centrality measures. Furthermore, spatial autocorrelation analysis was performed using Moran’s I to assess distribution trends.

Results

The R₀ and doubling time varied across regions, with a global mean of 1.046 and 373.12 days, respectively. This finding suggests that sustained transmission is limited; however, the potential for exponential spread of disease outbreaks persists. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed moderate clustering of Mpox cases (Moran’s I = 0.067, p-value = 0.075). Outbreak connectivity analysis revealed significant intercountry disease spread, indicating rapid cross-border transmission. Countries such as Germany, the United States, Australia, Italy, Belgium, and Spain were identified as disease-controlling hubs. The results also show the interconnectedness of global cases identified by network analysis.

Conclusions

Understanding outbreak dynamics, global spatial distribution patterns, and connectivity is essential for advancing the One Health approach and mitigating future disease risks. The findings reveal the risk of global Mpox transmission, emphasizing the need for continued surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine measures, and global collaboration to help curtail the global spread of Mpox.

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来源期刊

Journal of Infection and Public Health PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH -INFECTIOUS DISEASES

CiteScore

13.10

自引率

1.50%

发文量

203

审稿时长

96 days

期刊介绍： The Journal of Infection and Public Health, first official journal of the Saudi Arabian Ministry of National Guard Health Affairs, King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences and the Saudi Association for Public Health, aims to be the foremost scientific, peer-reviewed journal encompassing infection prevention and control, microbiology, infectious diseases, public health and the application of healthcare epidemiology to the evaluation of health outcomes. The point of view of the journal is that infection and public health are closely intertwined and that advances in one area will have positive consequences on the other. The journal will be useful to all health professionals who are partners in the management of patients with communicable diseases, keeping them up to date. The journal is proud to have an international and diverse editorial board that will assist and facilitate the publication of articles that reflect a global view on infection control and public health, as well as emphasizing our focus on supporting the needs of public health practitioners. It is our aim to improve healthcare by reducing risk of infection and related adverse outcomes by critical review, selection, and dissemination of new and relevant information in the field of infection control, public health and infectious diseases in all healthcare settings and the community.