{"title":"北半球环模的预估变化与ENSO遥相关的季节性有关","authors":"T. Kawamura, Y. Kosaka, S. Okajima, H. Nakamura","doi":"10.1029/2025GL118175","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>The Northern Annular Mode (NAM) induces anomalous wintertime weather over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere as the leading mode of atmospheric circulation variability. Yet, modulations of its statistical properties in a changing climate need elucidating. This study investigates the seasonality of NAM variability and its modulations under global warming with a large-ensemble atmospheric simulation data set. We find that the Aleutian Low anomaly associated with the NAM strengthens in a warmer climate, which is linked to a seasonally earlier emergence of the Aleutian-Icelandic Low seesaw (AIS). The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection extends more eastward under global warming, which increases the ENSO-NAM correlation through the earlier AIS development. Our findings suggest increased predictability of the NAM under global warming, with uncertainties due to potential ENSO changes.</p>","PeriodicalId":12523,"journal":{"name":"Geophysical Research Letters","volume":"52 18","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.6000,"publicationDate":"2025-09-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL118175","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Projected Changes of the Northern Annular Mode Linked to Seasonality of the ENSO Teleconnection\",\"authors\":\"T. Kawamura, Y. Kosaka, S. Okajima, H. Nakamura\",\"doi\":\"10.1029/2025GL118175\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>The Northern Annular Mode (NAM) induces anomalous wintertime weather over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere as the leading mode of atmospheric circulation variability. Yet, modulations of its statistical properties in a changing climate need elucidating. This study investigates the seasonality of NAM variability and its modulations under global warming with a large-ensemble atmospheric simulation data set. We find that the Aleutian Low anomaly associated with the NAM strengthens in a warmer climate, which is linked to a seasonally earlier emergence of the Aleutian-Icelandic Low seesaw (AIS). The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection extends more eastward under global warming, which increases the ENSO-NAM correlation through the earlier AIS development. Our findings suggest increased predictability of the NAM under global warming, with uncertainties due to potential ENSO changes.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":12523,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Geophysical Research Letters\",\"volume\":\"52 18\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-09-19\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1029/2025GL118175\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Geophysical Research Letters\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"89\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025GL118175\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"地球科学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Geophysical Research Letters","FirstCategoryId":"89","ListUrlMain":"https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025GL118175","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Projected Changes of the Northern Annular Mode Linked to Seasonality of the ENSO Teleconnection
The Northern Annular Mode (NAM) induces anomalous wintertime weather over the extratropical Northern Hemisphere as the leading mode of atmospheric circulation variability. Yet, modulations of its statistical properties in a changing climate need elucidating. This study investigates the seasonality of NAM variability and its modulations under global warming with a large-ensemble atmospheric simulation data set. We find that the Aleutian Low anomaly associated with the NAM strengthens in a warmer climate, which is linked to a seasonally earlier emergence of the Aleutian-Icelandic Low seesaw (AIS). The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnection extends more eastward under global warming, which increases the ENSO-NAM correlation through the earlier AIS development. Our findings suggest increased predictability of the NAM under global warming, with uncertainties due to potential ENSO changes.
期刊介绍：
Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) publishes high-impact, innovative, and timely research on major scientific advances in all the major geoscience disciplines. Papers are communications-length articles and should have broad and immediate implications in their discipline or across the geosciences. GRLmaintains the fastest turn-around of all high-impact publications in the geosciences and works closely with authors to ensure broad visibility of top papers.
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