[Simulation and Prediction of Carbon Storage Change in Ecological Restoration Project Area Based on PLUS-InVEST Model in Aksu River Basin].

The geological environment of the arid region in northwest China is unique， characterized by a long-term scarcity of water resources， which results in an extremely fragile ecosystem. In this context， studying the changes in carbon storage characteristics and the driving factors of spatial differentiation before and after the implementation of ecological restoration projects can provide a scientific basis for ecological restoration and sustainable development in arid regions. Based on land use data from 2008， 2013， 2018， and 2023， the study analyzed and predicted land use changes and carbon storage under different historical and future scenarios and explored the driving mechanisms. The study produced several interesting results： ① The spatial distribution pattern of land use changed significantly during 2008-2023. The expansion of cultivated land area was the most significant change， an increase of 12.89×10⁴ hm². ② During 2008-2023， the total carbon storage showed an increasing trend， increasing by 483.97×10⁴ t. ③ Temperature is the main driving factor affecting the spatial distribution of carbon stocks （q value of 0.513）， and the interaction between annual average temperature and distance to government detected by the interaction factor is the main driving factor affecting the spatial distribution of carbon stocks （q value of 0.605）. ④Carbon storage is predicted to show an increasing trend in 2028 under the three scenarios of natural development， ecological protection， and dual protection of farmland ecology. Carbon storage will increase significantly in the ecological protection scenario， but the dual protection of ecology and farmland scenario increases farmland area while protecting the ecology and improving carbon storage. This study provides technical support for evaluating the ecological restoration effectiveness of the Shanshui Project and also provides a scientific reference for local realization of the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals. ⑤ With the implementation of ecological restoration projects， the area of ecological land in the region has increased in comparison to the period prior to these projects. Moreover， carbon storage has transitioned from a reduction of 382.95×10⁴ t in the previous period to an increase of 277.2×10⁴ t， indicating the significant effectiveness of the ecological protection initiatives.