Hang Wu, Jingjing Li, Yue Yang, Xiaoqi Xuan, Jinlong Yang
{"title":"神经母细胞瘤和其他周围神经细胞肿瘤的全球负担、趋势和到2050年的预测：1990年至2021年全球疾病负担研究的系统分析","authors":"Hang Wu, Jingjing Li, Yue Yang, Xiaoqi Xuan, Jinlong Yang","doi":"10.3389/fped.2025.1604053","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Neuroblastoma and other Peripheral Nervous Cell Tumors (NPNTs) contribute substantially to global pediatric cancer morbidity and mortality, particularly among children under five. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the global burden of NPNTs, examining long-term trends from 1990 to 2021 and projecting future patterns through 2050, based on data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We analyzed mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2021 using GBD data. Trends were assessed via age-standardized rates (ASRs) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Predictive models (Exponential Smoothing and ARIMA) projected future burden through 2050. Analyses were stratified by age, sex, and socio-demographic index (SDI) regions.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In 2021, NPNTs resulted in 5,194 deaths (95% UI: 4,295-5,932) and 285,479 DALYs (95% UI: 227,709-341,110) globally. Children under five years accounted for 1,355 deaths (26.1% of total) and 126,215 DALYs (44.2% of total), with males exhibiting higher mortality rates (ASR: 0.08 vs. 0.06 per 100,000 in females). Middle-SDI regions experienced the highest number of deaths (1,503) and DALYs (79,412), while high-SDI regions had the highest age-standardized death rate (0.09 per 100,000) and DALYs rate (5.25 per 100,000). From 1990 to 2021, population growth drove 90.2% of DALYs increases, while aging offset 13.0% of the rise. Projections diverged: ES models predicted stable trends, whereas ARIMA forecasted a 22.3% increase in male DALYs by 2050 (from 165,574 to 226,533).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The escalating burden of NPNTs is strongly tied to demographic expansion and inequitable healthcare access. Prioritizing early diagnosis in high-burden regions (e.g., middle/low-SDI settings) and addressing sex-specific disparities are imperative. These findings call for data-driven policies to mitigate future disease burden through targeted resource allocation and surveillance strengthening.</p>","PeriodicalId":12637,"journal":{"name":"Frontiers in Pediatrics","volume":"13 ","pages":"1604053"},"PeriodicalIF":2.0000,"publicationDate":"2025-09-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12440315/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Global burden, trends, and projections to 2050 of neuroblastoma and other peripheral nervous cell tumors: a systematic analysis of the global burden of disease study from 1990 to 2021.\",\"authors\":\"Hang Wu, Jingjing Li, Yue Yang, Xiaoqi Xuan, Jinlong Yang\",\"doi\":\"10.3389/fped.2025.1604053\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Neuroblastoma and other Peripheral Nervous Cell Tumors (NPNTs) contribute substantially to global pediatric cancer morbidity and mortality, particularly among children under five. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the global burden of NPNTs, examining long-term trends from 1990 to 2021 and projecting future patterns through 2050, based on data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We analyzed mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2021 using GBD data. Trends were assessed via age-standardized rates (ASRs) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Predictive models (Exponential Smoothing and ARIMA) projected future burden through 2050. Analyses were stratified by age, sex, and socio-demographic index (SDI) regions.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In 2021, NPNTs resulted in 5,194 deaths (95% UI: 4,295-5,932) and 285,479 DALYs (95% UI: 227,709-341,110) globally. Children under five years accounted for 1,355 deaths (26.1% of total) and 126,215 DALYs (44.2% of total), with males exhibiting higher mortality rates (ASR: 0.08 vs. 0.06 per 100,000 in females). Middle-SDI regions experienced the highest number of deaths (1,503) and DALYs (79,412), while high-SDI regions had the highest age-standardized death rate (0.09 per 100,000) and DALYs rate (5.25 per 100,000). From 1990 to 2021, population growth drove 90.2% of DALYs increases, while aging offset 13.0% of the rise. Projections diverged: ES models predicted stable trends, whereas ARIMA forecasted a 22.3% increase in male DALYs by 2050 (from 165,574 to 226,533).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>The escalating burden of NPNTs is strongly tied to demographic expansion and inequitable healthcare access. Prioritizing early diagnosis in high-burden regions (e.g., middle/low-SDI settings) and addressing sex-specific disparities are imperative. 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Global burden, trends, and projections to 2050 of neuroblastoma and other peripheral nervous cell tumors: a systematic analysis of the global burden of disease study from 1990 to 2021.
Background: Neuroblastoma and other Peripheral Nervous Cell Tumors (NPNTs) contribute substantially to global pediatric cancer morbidity and mortality, particularly among children under five. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the global burden of NPNTs, examining long-term trends from 1990 to 2021 and projecting future patterns through 2050, based on data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021.
Methods: We analyzed mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from 1990 to 2021 using GBD data. Trends were assessed via age-standardized rates (ASRs) and estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Predictive models (Exponential Smoothing and ARIMA) projected future burden through 2050. Analyses were stratified by age, sex, and socio-demographic index (SDI) regions.
Results: In 2021, NPNTs resulted in 5,194 deaths (95% UI: 4,295-5,932) and 285,479 DALYs (95% UI: 227,709-341,110) globally. Children under five years accounted for 1,355 deaths (26.1% of total) and 126,215 DALYs (44.2% of total), with males exhibiting higher mortality rates (ASR: 0.08 vs. 0.06 per 100,000 in females). Middle-SDI regions experienced the highest number of deaths (1,503) and DALYs (79,412), while high-SDI regions had the highest age-standardized death rate (0.09 per 100,000) and DALYs rate (5.25 per 100,000). From 1990 to 2021, population growth drove 90.2% of DALYs increases, while aging offset 13.0% of the rise. Projections diverged: ES models predicted stable trends, whereas ARIMA forecasted a 22.3% increase in male DALYs by 2050 (from 165,574 to 226,533).
Conclusions: The escalating burden of NPNTs is strongly tied to demographic expansion and inequitable healthcare access. Prioritizing early diagnosis in high-burden regions (e.g., middle/low-SDI settings) and addressing sex-specific disparities are imperative. These findings call for data-driven policies to mitigate future disease burden through targeted resource allocation and surveillance strengthening.
期刊介绍：
Frontiers in Pediatrics (Impact Factor 2.33) publishes rigorously peer-reviewed research broadly across the field, from basic to clinical research that meets ongoing challenges in pediatric patient care and child health. Field Chief Editors Arjan Te Pas at Leiden University and Michael L. Moritz at the Children''s Hospital of Pittsburgh are supported by an outstanding Editorial Board of international experts. This multidisciplinary open-access journal is at the forefront of disseminating and communicating scientific knowledge and impactful discoveries to researchers, academics, clinicians and the public worldwide.
Frontiers in Pediatrics also features Research Topics, Frontiers special theme-focused issues managed by Guest Associate Editors, addressing important areas in pediatrics. In this fashion, Frontiers serves as an outlet to publish the broadest aspects of pediatrics in both basic and clinical research, including high-quality reviews, case reports, editorials and commentaries related to all aspects of pediatrics.
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