{"title":"乙型肝炎患者并发原发性肝癌的影响因素分析及柱状图预测模型的构建","authors":"Qunmei Cao, Yilin Zhou, Changlong Wen, Qinglan Li","doi":"10.1017/S0950268825100538","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>A predictive column chart was developed to assess the risk of primary liver cancer (PLC) in hepatitis B patients. Data from 107 PLC patients and 107 controls were used as the training set, with 92 patients as the validation set. An additional 446 patients from other hospitals, including 15 with PLC, formed the external validation group. Multivariate logistic regression identified gender, BMI, alcohol consumption, diabetes, family history of liver cancer, cirrhosis, and HBV DNA load as independent risk factors. The model showed strong discrimination with AUCs of 0.882 and 0.859 in the training and validation sets, respectively, and good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ² = 2.648, P = 0.954; χ² = 4.117, P = 0.846). Decision curve analysis (DCA) confirmed clinical benefit within a risk threshold of 0.07-0.95. In the external validation group, the model maintained discrimination (AUC = 0.863) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ² = 7.999, P = 0.434), with DCA showing net benefit across 0.14-0.95. These results indicate the column chart is a reliable tool for PLC risk prediction in hepatitis B patients.</p>","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":" ","pages":"e111"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2000,"publicationDate":"2025-09-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Analysis of influencing factors of concurrent primary liver cancer in hepatitis B patients and construction of column chart prediction model.\",\"authors\":\"Qunmei Cao, Yilin Zhou, Changlong Wen, Qinglan Li\",\"doi\":\"10.1017/S0950268825100538\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>A predictive column chart was developed to assess the risk of primary liver cancer (PLC) in hepatitis B patients. Data from 107 PLC patients and 107 controls were used as the training set, with 92 patients as the validation set. An additional 446 patients from other hospitals, including 15 with PLC, formed the external validation group. Multivariate logistic regression identified gender, BMI, alcohol consumption, diabetes, family history of liver cancer, cirrhosis, and HBV DNA load as independent risk factors. The model showed strong discrimination with AUCs of 0.882 and 0.859 in the training and validation sets, respectively, and good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ² = 2.648, P = 0.954; χ² = 4.117, P = 0.846). Decision curve analysis (DCA) confirmed clinical benefit within a risk threshold of 0.07-0.95. In the external validation group, the model maintained discrimination (AUC = 0.863) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ² = 7.999, P = 0.434), with DCA showing net benefit across 0.14-0.95. These results indicate the column chart is a reliable tool for PLC risk prediction in hepatitis B patients.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":11721,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Epidemiology and Infection\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"e111\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-09-16\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Epidemiology and Infection\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268825100538\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"INFECTIOUS DISEASES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Epidemiology and Infection","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S0950268825100538","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"INFECTIOUS DISEASES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Analysis of influencing factors of concurrent primary liver cancer in hepatitis B patients and construction of column chart prediction model.
A predictive column chart was developed to assess the risk of primary liver cancer (PLC) in hepatitis B patients. Data from 107 PLC patients and 107 controls were used as the training set, with 92 patients as the validation set. An additional 446 patients from other hospitals, including 15 with PLC, formed the external validation group. Multivariate logistic regression identified gender, BMI, alcohol consumption, diabetes, family history of liver cancer, cirrhosis, and HBV DNA load as independent risk factors. The model showed strong discrimination with AUCs of 0.882 and 0.859 in the training and validation sets, respectively, and good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ² = 2.648, P = 0.954; χ² = 4.117, P = 0.846). Decision curve analysis (DCA) confirmed clinical benefit within a risk threshold of 0.07-0.95. In the external validation group, the model maintained discrimination (AUC = 0.863) and calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ² = 7.999, P = 0.434), with DCA showing net benefit across 0.14-0.95. These results indicate the column chart is a reliable tool for PLC risk prediction in hepatitis B patients.
期刊介绍:
Epidemiology & Infection publishes original reports and reviews on all aspects of infection in humans and animals. Particular emphasis is given to the epidemiology, prevention and control of infectious diseases. The scope covers the zoonoses, outbreaks, food hygiene, vaccine studies, statistics and the clinical, social and public-health aspects of infectious disease, as well as some tropical infections. It has become the key international periodical in which to find the latest reports on recently discovered infections and new technology. For those concerned with policy and planning for the control of infections, the papers on mathematical modelling of epidemics caused by historical, current and emergent infections are of particular value.