Expected Impact of Implementing the PAHO Regional Sodium Targets in Mexico.

BACKGROUND Excessive sodium intake increases the risk of cardiovascular disease. Mexico has implemented voluntary measures to reduce sodium intake, but they are insufficient to meet the global target of sodium intake reduction by 2025. We aimed to simulate the expected impact of implementing the Pan American Health Organization Sodium Targets in processed and ultra-processed foods in Mexico. METHODS Sodium consumption was estimated using 24-hour dietary recall data from the 2016 Mexican National Health and Nutrition Survey. The intervention consisted of implementing Pan American Health Organization Sodium Targets in 16 food groups divided into 75 subgroups. We estimated the potential decrease in systolic blood pressure using a linear function by age and hypertension status, and the potential decrease in deaths and incident cases of cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and stomach cancer using a nonparametric version of the potential impact fraction. RESULTS Implementing the Pan American Health Organization Sodium Targets could reduce overall sodium consumption by 25%, leading to a 1.2 mm Hg reduction in systolic blood pressure (2.1 mm Hg in people with hypertension). Annually, this intervention could prevent 5.3% of deaths (12 866 in 2019) and 3.9% of incident cases (43 940 in 2019) of cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease and stomach cancer. CONCLUSIONS Implementing the Pan American Health Organization Sodium Targets is expected to reduce sodium consumption and improve cardiovascular-related outcomes. Interventions in real-life settings, testing this premise should consider barriers and facilitators for implementation and maintenance, considering consumer preferences and fluctuations in food content.