Concentrated Affluence and Deprivation and Spatial Distribution of Firearm Violence: Racial/Ethnic Disparities Across Urban Neighborhoods in the U.S.

Introduction

This study examined whether neighborhood-level concentration of deprivation relative to affluence is associated with spatial variation in shootings and whether this association differs by the racial/ethnic composition of neighborhoods.

Methods

Tract-level firearm violence data from 2020 to 2023 were obtained for 100 U.S. cities from the American Violence database. A modern measure of income inequality—Index of Concentration at the Extremes—and negative binomial regression models were used to estimate the marginal effects of concentration at the extremes on shootings across Black, Hispanic, mixed minority, White, and racially integrated neighborhoods. Data analysis was conducted between December 2024 and July 2025.

Results

A comparison of marginal effects revealed that the impact of concentration at the extremes on firearm violence was significantly greater in Black and mixed-minority neighborhoods than in predominantly Hispanic or White neighborhoods.

Conclusions

This study highlights the differential effects of income inequality across neighborhoods with varied population profiles. The concentration of affluence and deprivation has more pronounced effects on the burden of firearm violence in Black and mixed minority neighborhoods. Place-based interventions including investments in low-income Black and mix minority neighborhoods might be promising tools for firearm violence prevention.