Managing the water-energy-food nexus in the adige river basin: impacts of climate and land use change on ecosystem services bundles.

The Water-Energy-Food (WEF) nexus framework highlights the interdependencies among water, energy, and food systems. Integrating Ecosystem Services (ESs) enhances this approach by incorporating ecological benefits for more holistic assessments. This study applies a spatially explicit ESs-based WEF nexus analysis in the Adige River Basin (Northern Italy), focusing on five ESs: water provisioning, crop yield, sediment retention, carbon storage, and landscape diversity, under two future scenarios (SSP1-RCP 2.6 and SSP5-RCP 8.5) from 2018 to 2050. Using Self-Organizing Maps, sub-basins were clustered into ESs bundles enabling the identification of tailored management strategies. Results reveal spatial heterogeneity and shifts in ESs bundles, with synergies often found in upstream, forested areas. Under high-emission scenarios, regulating services decline and provisioning services face trade-offs, especially with intensified agriculture. Key strategies suggested include maintaining environmental flows, reducing synthetic fertilizers, promoting reforestation, crop diversification, and expanding protected areas. These are structured into physical, economic, and climatic pathways aligned with EU restoration goals. Findings demonstrate the value of an ESs-bundles approach for optimizing synergies and managing trade-offs across the WEF nexus.

Supplementary information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10584-025-04013-3.