Rongxing Weng, Jisoo A Kwon, Mo Hammoud, Brent Clifton, Nick Scott, Skye Mcgregor, Richard T Gray
{"title":"评估COVID-19对澳大利亚男男性行为者中艾滋病毒流行的影响。","authors":"Rongxing Weng, Jisoo A Kwon, Mo Hammoud, Brent Clifton, Nick Scott, Skye Mcgregor, Richard T Gray","doi":"10.1097/QAD.0000000000004344","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>Government-imposed physical distancing restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted biobehavioral HIV prevention practices and access to healthcare services. This study aimed to use a mathematical model to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on the HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men in Australia, using empirical data.</p><p><strong>Design: </strong>A retrospective modeling study.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We developed a mathematical model to estimate monthly HIV incidence between January 2020 and August 2022. We obtained aggregated monthly data for sexual partners, condom use, HIV testing, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use, and migration. Three scenarios were simulated: 1) a COVID-19 scenario; 2) a no COVID-19 scenario where input parameters remained at pre-COVID-19 values; and 3) a no COVID-19 scenario with continued PrEP scale-up.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In the absence of the COVID-19 pandemic, 1,263 (95% Percentile Interval (PI): 880-1,706) infections would have occurred between January 2020 and August 2022 compared to 915 (95% PI: 638-1,282) for the COVID-19 scenario (a 27.6% reduction). Reduced sexual partners was the leading factor contributing to the change in HIV infections and diagnoses (-24.9% and -10.6%, respectively). MSM aged ≥50 years had a larger reduction (31.0%) in new HIV infections than their younger counterparts (19.9%).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>A substantial reduction in new HIV infections and diagnoses in Australia occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, largely due to decreased numbers of sexual partners. This reduction underscores the need for sustained public health strategies leveraging reduced transmission rates to continue progress towards eliminating HIV in Australia.</p>","PeriodicalId":7502,"journal":{"name":"AIDS","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.1000,"publicationDate":"2025-09-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Evaluating the impact of COVID-19 on the HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men in Australia.\",\"authors\":\"Rongxing Weng, Jisoo A Kwon, Mo Hammoud, Brent Clifton, Nick Scott, Skye Mcgregor, Richard T Gray\",\"doi\":\"10.1097/QAD.0000000000004344\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Objective: </strong>Government-imposed physical distancing restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted biobehavioral HIV prevention practices and access to healthcare services. This study aimed to use a mathematical model to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on the HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men in Australia, using empirical data.</p><p><strong>Design: </strong>A retrospective modeling study.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We developed a mathematical model to estimate monthly HIV incidence between January 2020 and August 2022. We obtained aggregated monthly data for sexual partners, condom use, HIV testing, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use, and migration. Three scenarios were simulated: 1) a COVID-19 scenario; 2) a no COVID-19 scenario where input parameters remained at pre-COVID-19 values; and 3) a no COVID-19 scenario with continued PrEP scale-up.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In the absence of the COVID-19 pandemic, 1,263 (95% Percentile Interval (PI): 880-1,706) infections would have occurred between January 2020 and August 2022 compared to 915 (95% PI: 638-1,282) for the COVID-19 scenario (a 27.6% reduction). Reduced sexual partners was the leading factor contributing to the change in HIV infections and diagnoses (-24.9% and -10.6%, respectively). MSM aged ≥50 years had a larger reduction (31.0%) in new HIV infections than their younger counterparts (19.9%).</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>A substantial reduction in new HIV infections and diagnoses in Australia occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, largely due to decreased numbers of sexual partners. This reduction underscores the need for sustained public health strategies leveraging reduced transmission rates to continue progress towards eliminating HIV in Australia.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":7502,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"AIDS\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.1000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-09-15\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"AIDS\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1097/QAD.0000000000004344\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"IMMUNOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"AIDS","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1097/QAD.0000000000004344","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"IMMUNOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Evaluating the impact of COVID-19 on the HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men in Australia.
Objective: Government-imposed physical distancing restrictions during the COVID-19 pandemic disrupted biobehavioral HIV prevention practices and access to healthcare services. This study aimed to use a mathematical model to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on the HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men in Australia, using empirical data.
Design: A retrospective modeling study.
Methods: We developed a mathematical model to estimate monthly HIV incidence between January 2020 and August 2022. We obtained aggregated monthly data for sexual partners, condom use, HIV testing, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use, and migration. Three scenarios were simulated: 1) a COVID-19 scenario; 2) a no COVID-19 scenario where input parameters remained at pre-COVID-19 values; and 3) a no COVID-19 scenario with continued PrEP scale-up.
Results: In the absence of the COVID-19 pandemic, 1,263 (95% Percentile Interval (PI): 880-1,706) infections would have occurred between January 2020 and August 2022 compared to 915 (95% PI: 638-1,282) for the COVID-19 scenario (a 27.6% reduction). Reduced sexual partners was the leading factor contributing to the change in HIV infections and diagnoses (-24.9% and -10.6%, respectively). MSM aged ≥50 years had a larger reduction (31.0%) in new HIV infections than their younger counterparts (19.9%).
Conclusions: A substantial reduction in new HIV infections and diagnoses in Australia occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, largely due to decreased numbers of sexual partners. This reduction underscores the need for sustained public health strategies leveraging reduced transmission rates to continue progress towards eliminating HIV in Australia.
期刊介绍：
Publishing the very latest ground breaking research on HIV and AIDS. Read by all the top clinicians and researchers, AIDS has the highest impact of all AIDS-related journals. With 18 issues per year, AIDS guarantees the authoritative presentation of significant advances. The Editors, themselves noted international experts who know the demands of your work, are committed to making AIDS the most distinguished and innovative journal in the field. Submitted articles undergo a preliminary review by the editor. Some articles may be returned to authors without further consideration. Those being considered for publication will undergo further assessment and peer-review by the editors and those invited to do so from a reviewer pool.
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