Forming-induced thickness effects on structural response of arched thin-shell metal alloys

This study addresses the critical influence of forming-induced thickness variations on arched thin-shell metal components' structural response and rupture behavior, a key challenge in safety-critical applications. An integrated predictive framework combines classical plate theory for initial deformation estimates, explicit dynamic finite element simulations for elastic-plastic analysis, and Kriging-based response surface modeling to map geometric, material, and process parameters to performance metrics. A large-scale simulation campaign across eight isotropic material models and 42,669 configurations identifies the arch rise-to-radius ratio as the dominant factor in post-forming thickness evolution, with non-uniform profiles causing up to

deviations in rupture pressures and altering failure modes compared to uniform assumptions. Modal, buckling, and rupture analyses highlight significant impacts on natural frequencies, critical loads, and mechanisms. Experimental validation on 36 Monel Alloy 400 rupture discs achieves high accuracy, with thickness root-mean-square error of

(maximum mean absolute percentage error

) and rupture pressure errors below

, supported by uncertainty analysis (expanded uncertainties

at

confidence). The generalizable framework, extensible to non-metallic isotropic shells and non-arched geometries, enables enhanced prediction, optimization, and reliability by linking forming outcomes to structural integrity.