{"title":"贸易、就业和工人福利","authors":"Erhan Artuc , Paulo Bastos , Eunhee Lee","doi":"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104154","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>We study the welfare effects of international trade on workers with a new dynamic general equilibrium discrete choice model of labor mobility, where the workers’ choice set of jobs is endogenous. Introducing an endogenous number of job options is crucial for matching labor flows in data and quantifying the welfare effects of trade. We exploit differential exposure of sectors and regions to destination-specific demand shocks to estimate the impacts of exports on wages, employment, and labor mobility, using matched employer–employee panel data for Brazil. The same empirical strategy is also applied to estimate structural parameters and the different components of changes in model-implied worker welfare. Counterfactual simulations confirm that the welfare effects of trade are significantly magnified by the introduction of an endogenous number of job options.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":16276,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Economics","volume":"158 ","pages":"Article 104154"},"PeriodicalIF":4.0000,"publicationDate":"2025-08-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Trade, jobs, and worker welfare\",\"authors\":\"Erhan Artuc , Paulo Bastos , Eunhee Lee\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.jinteco.2025.104154\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>We study the welfare effects of international trade on workers with a new dynamic general equilibrium discrete choice model of labor mobility, where the workers’ choice set of jobs is endogenous. Introducing an endogenous number of job options is crucial for matching labor flows in data and quantifying the welfare effects of trade. We exploit differential exposure of sectors and regions to destination-specific demand shocks to estimate the impacts of exports on wages, employment, and labor mobility, using matched employer–employee panel data for Brazil. The same empirical strategy is also applied to estimate structural parameters and the different components of changes in model-implied worker welfare. Counterfactual simulations confirm that the welfare effects of trade are significantly magnified by the introduction of an endogenous number of job options.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":16276,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Journal of International Economics\",\"volume\":\"158 \",\"pages\":\"Article 104154\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":4.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-08-15\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Journal of International Economics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022199625001114\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of International Economics","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0022199625001114","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
We study the welfare effects of international trade on workers with a new dynamic general equilibrium discrete choice model of labor mobility, where the workers’ choice set of jobs is endogenous. Introducing an endogenous number of job options is crucial for matching labor flows in data and quantifying the welfare effects of trade. We exploit differential exposure of sectors and regions to destination-specific demand shocks to estimate the impacts of exports on wages, employment, and labor mobility, using matched employer–employee panel data for Brazil. The same empirical strategy is also applied to estimate structural parameters and the different components of changes in model-implied worker welfare. Counterfactual simulations confirm that the welfare effects of trade are significantly magnified by the introduction of an endogenous number of job options.
期刊介绍:
The Journal of International Economics is intended to serve as the primary outlet for theoretical and empirical research in all areas of international economics. These include, but are not limited to the following: trade patterns, commercial policy; international institutions; exchange rates; open economy macroeconomics; international finance; international factor mobility. The Journal especially encourages the submission of articles which are empirical in nature, or deal with issues of open economy macroeconomics and international finance. Theoretical work submitted to the Journal should be original in its motivation or modelling structure. Empirical analysis should be based on a theoretical framework, and should be capable of replication.