影响韩国和香港手足口病（HFMD）传播性和季节性的环境和社会驱动因素

IF 4 3区医学 Q1 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Journal of Infection and Public Health Pub Date : 2025-09-05 DOI:10.1016/j.jiph.2025.102963

Zixuan Yao , Sukhyun Ryu , Yiu Chung Lau , Kok Yin Eugene Chan , Jiaming Xiong , Taegu Kim , Seunghyeon Lee , Lin Wang , Linyan Li , Peng Wu , Benjamin J. Cowling , Sheikh Taslim Ali

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引用次数: 0

摘要

手足口病（HFMD）是一种常见的传染性病毒性疾病，主要影响幼儿。它通常是季节性发生的，在温带地区的春季或夏季达到高峰。然而，其传播模式在全年环流的热带和亚热带地区不太规律。在这项研究中，我们调查了两个不同气候地点（亚热带城市香港和温带国家韩国）手足口病传播的各种驱动因素和季节性的影响。方法收集香港和韩国2010-2019年每周手足口病监测数据，推断瞬时繁殖数（Rt），测量手足口病的时变传播率。采用单变量回归模型来检验传播率与气象和社会驱动因素之间的关系。此外，采用多变量回归和滞后分析来量化不同内在和外在驱动因素对传播率（Rt）及其季节性的影响。研究发现：易感因素和季节间因素的减少是手足口病传播和季节性的关键内在驱动因素，分别解释了香港和韩国30%和70%的Rt变异。温度、绝对湿度和学校关闭是显著的外部驱动因素，解释了两个地区Rt的额外10% - 13%的差异。温度和绝对湿度与手足口病传播率的非线性倒u型关系改善了模型预测，解释了两个地点的传播率分别高达7 - 8%的变异。手足口病在香港和韩国两个不同地区的季节性传播模式受易感个体耗竭和温度和绝对湿度的倒u型关系驱动。

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Environmental and social driving factors in shaping the transmissibility and seasonality of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in South Korea and Hong Kong

Background

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a common contagious viral illness that primarily affects young children. It typically occurs seasonally, with a peak during spring or summer in temperate regions. However, its transmission patterns are less regular in the tropics and subtropics with year-round circulation. In this study, we investigated the impacts of various drivers of HFMD transmission and seasonality across two distinct climatic locations: Hong Kong (a subtropical city) and South Korea (a temperate country).

Methods

We collected weekly surveillance data for HFMD in Hong Kong and South Korea during 2010–2019 and inferred the instantaneous reproduction number (

R_{t}

) to measure the time-varing transmissibility of HFMD. Univariate regression models were employed to examine the associations between transmissibility and meteorological and social drivers. Additionnaly, multivariate regressions with lag analyses were conducted to quantify the impcats of different intrinsic and extrinsic drivers on transmissibility (

R_{t}

) and their seasonality.

Findings

We identified the depletion of susceptible and inter-seasonal factors as key intrinsic drivers for HFMD transmissibility and seasonality, explaining 30 % and 70 % of variance in

R_{t}

in Hong Kong and South Korea, respectively. Temperature, absolute humidity and school closures were significant extrinsic drivers explaining up to an additional 10 % −13 % variance in

R_{t}

in both locations. A non-linear inverted U-shaped form of association for temperature and absolute humidity with HFMD transmissibility improved model predictions, explaining up to 7–8 % variability of the transmissibility individually in both locations.

Interpretation

Seasonal transmission patterns of HFMD in two different locations in Hong Kong and South Korea were driven by depletion of susceptible individuals and inverted U-shaped associations with temperature and absolute humidity.

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来源期刊

Journal of Infection and Public Health PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH -INFECTIOUS DISEASES

CiteScore

13.10

自引率

1.50%

发文量

203

审稿时长

96 days

期刊介绍： The Journal of Infection and Public Health, first official journal of the Saudi Arabian Ministry of National Guard Health Affairs, King Saud Bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences and the Saudi Association for Public Health, aims to be the foremost scientific, peer-reviewed journal encompassing infection prevention and control, microbiology, infectious diseases, public health and the application of healthcare epidemiology to the evaluation of health outcomes. The point of view of the journal is that infection and public health are closely intertwined and that advances in one area will have positive consequences on the other. The journal will be useful to all health professionals who are partners in the management of patients with communicable diseases, keeping them up to date. The journal is proud to have an international and diverse editorial board that will assist and facilitate the publication of articles that reflect a global view on infection control and public health, as well as emphasizing our focus on supporting the needs of public health practitioners. It is our aim to improve healthcare by reducing risk of infection and related adverse outcomes by critical review, selection, and dissemination of new and relevant information in the field of infection control, public health and infectious diseases in all healthcare settings and the community.