Interplay of Climate Change, Policy, and Human Behavior in Lake Basins: Identifying Key Factors and Future Climate Hotspots (Case Study: Urmia Lake Basin, Iran)

Climate change, government policy, and human behavior pose unprecedented challenges to the sustainability of lakes worldwide, necessitating a nuanced understanding of their ecosystem impacts. This study focuses on Lake Urmia in Iran as a case study, unraveling the complex interplay between climate change, management strategies, and local farmer behaviors in shaping the lake’s fate. Through comparative analysis with Van Lake in Turkey, we identify anthropogenic drought as a key driver of Lake Urmia’s shrinkage, underscoring the need for proactive policy interventions. First, climate change in the region is measured using high-resolution climate data derived from five Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) analyzing 20 dimensions (5 indicators x 4 seasons) for each grid cell to identify Climate Change Hotspots (CCHs) and assess their potential impact on the Urmia and Van Lake basins. Second, semi-structured interviews and thematic analysis reveal the economic priorities of farmers in the Mahabad Plain region, representing farmers in the basin, and highlighting a critical gap in water conservation attitudes. Our findings advocate for government intervention in promoting crops with low water needs and incentivizing sustainable water management practices. Additionally, we identify climate change hotspots in the Urmia Lake Basin, providing vital insights for policymakers to prioritize mitigation measures. We propose targeted information campaigns and workshops to foster environmental responsibility among farmers, particularly in vulnerable regions. Ultimately, this study advocates for a comprehensive approach to sustainable water management, offering valuable lessons for preserving fragile ecosystems like Lake Urmia in the face of climate change.