传统与简单人工神经网络模型在精细分辨率下对全球太阳辐照度组分进行高效分离的比较

IF 6 2区 工程技术 Q2 ENERGY & FUELS
Jose A. Ruiz-Arias , Enrique Domínguez , Christian A. Gueymard
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引用次数: 0

摘要

大多数太阳能应用都需要太阳辐射成分,但全球水平辐照度(GHI)是通常可用的唯一测量或模式输出。经验成分分离模型将GHI分解为其组成部分,是确保全球范围内太阳能成分可用性的唯一实际解决方案。公共观测数据集的日益可用性和机器学习(ML)的兴起为新的建模框架铺平了道路,传统模型和基于ML的模型现在共存。到目前为止,已经提出了许多机器学习技术,但还没有发现它们能够在全球范围内改善最佳的传统模型。此外,一些机器学习方法的复杂性超出了普通用户的范围,这不利于它们在常规应用程序中的实际采用。本研究探讨了一个基本的人工神经网络(ANN)在减少易访问的输入变量数量的情况下,是否能在全球范围内优于最佳的传统分离模型。使用117个辐射测量站的全球数据库测试了具有不同输入组合的三个人工神经网络版本,并对13个最佳传统模型进行了评估。尽管其中两个人工神经网络模型并没有最终优于最佳常规分离模型,证明基于ml的模型并不一定优于传统模型,但第三个人工神经网络模型在几乎所有地面站点都始终优于传统模型,将预测直接法向辐照度的平均均方根误差从最佳常规模型的≈16%降低到≈14%。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Comparison of conventional and simple artificial neural network models for high-performance separation of global solar irradiance components at minutely resolution
Solar radiation components are required by most solar applications, but global horizontal irradiance (GHI) is the only measurement or model output that is usually available. Empirical component separation models separate GHI into its components and are the only practical solution that can ensure the availability of the solar components on a global scale. The growing availability of public observed datasets and the rise of machine learning (ML) have paved the way for a new modeling framework, where conventional and ML-based models now coexist. Many ML techniques have been proposed so far, but they have not been clearly found to improve the best conventional models on a global scale. Moreover, the complexity of some ML approaches is out of the reach of normal users, which is detrimental to their practical adoption in regular applications. This study investigates whether a basic artificial neural network (ANN) with a reduced number of easily accessible input variables can outperform the best conventional separation models on a global scale. Three ANN versions with different input combinations are tested using a global database of 117 radiometric stations, and are evaluated against 13 of the best conventional models. Although two of the ANN models are not conclusively better than the best conventional separation model, proving that ML-based models are not necessarily better than conventional models, the third one is consistently better at nearly all ground sites, reducing the average root mean square error of the predicted direct normal irradiance from 16% with the best conventional model to 14%.
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来源期刊
Solar Energy
Solar Energy 工程技术-能源与燃料
CiteScore
13.90
自引率
9.00%
发文量
0
审稿时长
47 days
期刊介绍: Solar Energy welcomes manuscripts presenting information not previously published in journals on any aspect of solar energy research, development, application, measurement or policy. The term "solar energy" in this context includes the indirect uses such as wind energy and biomass
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