Spatial-temporal shipping risk assessment along Asia-Europe route due to ocean waves

The safety of ship navigation is a longstanding priority in the maritime industry, with ocean waves exerting significant influence on vessel stability and operational risk. This study conducts a spatial-temporal analysis of ship accidents over the past 24 years along the Asia–Europe shipping route, integrating a global ship accident database with wave parameters derived from the ERA5 and Copernicus wave reanalysis datasets. A key focus is placed on the interaction between wind seas and swells, which reveals that when these wave systems exhibit similar propagation directions and wave periods, strong coupling can occur—intensifying sea states and substantially increasing the probability of ship accidents. Based on these findings, a wave-induced navigation risk assessment framework was developed to quantify the potential risk posed by ocean waves. Seasonal climatology analyses show that navigation risk is generally higher in the Northwest Pacific Ocean compared to the North Indian Ocean. Moreover, elevated risk levels are observed in the Northwest Pacific during winter and in the North Indian Ocean during summer, indicating distinct seasonal patterns in wave-induced accident risk. These results provide valuable insights for improving ship routing strategies and enhancing maritime safety under varying ocean wave conditions.