Variational autoencoded multivariate spatial Fay–Herriot models

Small area estimation models are essential for estimating population characteristics in regions with limited sample sizes, thereby supporting policy decisions, demographic studies, and resource allocation, among other use cases. The spatial Fay–Herriot model is one such approach that incorporates spatial dependence to improve estimation by borrowing strength from neighboring regions. However, this approach often requires substantial computational resources, limiting its scalability for high-dimensional datasets, especially when considering multiple (multivariate) responses. This paper proposes two methods that integrate the multivariate spatial Fay–Herriot model with spatial random effects, learned through variational autoencoders, to efficiently leverage spatial structure. Importantly, after training the variational autoencoder to represent spatial dependence for a given set of geographies, it may be used again in future modeling efforts, without the need for retraining. Additionally, the use of the variational autoencoder to represent spatial dependence results in extreme improvements in computational efficiency, even for massive datasets. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach using 5-year period estimates from the American Community Survey over all census tracts in California.