青年人和中年人因含糖饮料导致的非传染性疾病死亡人数不断增加：基于《2021年全球疾病负担研究》的分析和预测

IF 3.4 Q1 ENDOCRINOLOGY & METABOLISM

Diabetes & Metabolic Syndrome-Clinical Research & Reviews Pub Date : 2025-08-01 DOI:10.1016/j.dsx.2025.103296

Chang Liu , Hao Wang , Lin Hua , Zhong Xin

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引用次数: 0

摘要

尽管全球对含糖饮料（SSBs）的健康担忧日益增加，但它们对跨人口群体和社会经济背景的非传染性疾病（NCD）死亡的长期影响仍知之甚少。方法：我们使用来自204个国家（1990-2021年）的全球疾病负担（GBD）研究2021数据分析了ssb导致的非传染性疾病死亡趋势。死亡的时间趋势表示为平均年变化百分比（AAPC），按年龄和社会人口指数（SDI）分层。使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测到2051年的未来趋势。结果sssb归因死亡人数从1990年的27286人（95%死亡率：11099 - 42134人）增加到2021年的74657人（95%死亡率：33724 - 115575人）。年龄标准化死亡率从0.784 / 10万上升到0.889 / 10万（AAPC: 0.460%, 95% CI: 0.326 ~ 0.594）。青壮年和中年人的死亡率迅速增加，25-29岁年龄组的AAPC为1.250% (95% CI: 1.070-1.420)，特别是慢性肾脏疾病（AAPC: 2.779%, 95% CI: 2.626-2.931）。中低SDI区域的增长最为显著（AAPC: 2.569%, 95% CI: 2.453-2.684）。结论：我们的研究结果显示，由ssb引起的非传染性疾病死亡人数出现了惊人的上升，特别是在年轻人和资源有限的地区。这一日益严峻的卫生公平挑战需要紧急的政策干预和预防战略，以保护弱势群体。

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The growing deaths from non-communicable diseases attributable to sugar-sweetened beverages among young and middle-aged adults: Analysis and projection based on Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Introduction

Despite rising global health concerns about sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), their long-term impact on non-communicable disease (NCD) death across demographic groups and socioeconomic contexts remains poorly understood.

Methods

We analyzed SSB-attributable NCD death trends using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021 data from 204 countries (1990–2021). Time trends in death were expressed as average annual percent change (AAPC), stratified by age and socio-demographic index (SDI). Future trends through 2051 were projected using Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling.

Results

SSB-attributable deaths increased from 27,286 (95 % UI: 11,099–42,134) in 1990 to 74,657 (95 % UI: 33,724–115,575) in 2021. The age-standardized death rate rose from 0.784 to 0.889 per 100,000 (AAPC: 0.460 %, 95 % CI: 0.326–0.594). Young and middle-aged adults exhibited a rapid increase in deaths, with an AAPC of 1.250 % (95 % CI: 1.070–1.420) observed in the 25–29 age group, particularly due to chronic kidney disease (AAPC: 2.779 %, 95 % CI: 2.626–2.931). Low-middle SDI regions experienced the most dramatic increase (AAPC: 2.569 %, 95 % CI: 2.453–2.684).

Conclusion

Our findings reveal an alarming rise in SSB-attributable NCD deaths, particularly affecting young adults and resource-limited regions. This growing health equity challenge requires urgent policy interventions and prevention strategies to protect vulnerable populations.

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来源期刊

Diabetes & Metabolic Syndrome-Clinical Research & Reviews ENDOCRINOLOGY & METABOLISM-

CiteScore

22.90

自引率

2.00%

发文量

248

审稿时长

51 days

期刊介绍： Diabetes and Metabolic Syndrome: Clinical Research and Reviews is the official journal of DiabetesIndia. It aims to provide a global platform for healthcare professionals, diabetes educators, and other stakeholders to submit their research on diabetes care. Types of Publications: Diabetes and Metabolic Syndrome: Clinical Research and Reviews publishes peer-reviewed original articles, reviews, short communications, case reports, letters to the Editor, and expert comments. Reviews and mini-reviews are particularly welcomed for areas within endocrinology undergoing rapid changes.