Does participation in pension insurance promote or inhibit high-quality economic development? A heterogeneity and threshold effects analysis

Using panel data from 31 provincial-level administrative regions in China from 2010 to 2023, this paper constructs an econometric model to empirically assess the impact of pension insurance participation on high-quality economic development. The findings show that pension insurance participation significantly promotes high-quality regional economic development, and this conclusion remains robust after addressing potential endogeneity. Social security expenditure exerts a significant moderating influence on the pathway through which pension insurance participation affects high-quality development. Moreover, the positive effect of pension insurance participation displays pronounced regional heterogeneity, with the impact being strongest in the western region compared with the eastern and central regions. The economic benefits of pension insurance participation are also constrained by the degree of population aging, exhibiting a nonlinear threshold effect: once the aging rate surpasses a critical point, the marginal contribution of pension insurance participation to high-quality economic development begins to decline. This paper uncovers the mechanism of pension insurance participation on high-quality economic development and its regional heterogeneity, clarifies the moderating effect of social security expenditure and the nonlinear threshold characteristics of aging, providing policy references for optimizing the social security system, promoting coordinated regional development, and addressing aging challenges.