中国区域绿色经济效率与人口老龄化:基于Tobit模型的数据包络分析

IF 2.1 Q2 GEOGRAPHY
Yue Zhao , Qifeng Ma , Fan Yang
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文提出了中国省级绿色经济效率评价指标体系,并探讨了绿色经济效率与人口老龄化的关系。基于2000 - 2020年30个省区市的面板数据,采用基于slack的测度-数据包络分析(SBM-DEA)模型对人口老龄化对区域绩效的影响进行评价,并采用Tobit回归模型分析人口老龄化对区域绩效的影响。结果表明:(1)在国家层面上,全球环境承载力总体呈下降趋势,且空间差异明显;东部地区的表现一直优于其他地区,而西部和东北部地区则落后。(2)人口老龄化对企业绩效有显著的正向影响。鲁棒性检验证实了这一结果的稳定性。(3)机制分析表明,老龄化主要提高经济产出效率,而不是环境绩效。(4)区域异质性明显,东部地区呈u型关系;中部地区持续呈现稳定的正相关关系;西部和东北地区则呈现倒u型发展趋势。这些研究结果强调需要制定区域差异化政策,将人口现实与绿色发展战略结合起来,确保人口老龄化对经济生产力和环境可持续性做出贡献。该研究为支持旨在促进中国可持续低碳经济的差异化人口和环境战略提供了证据。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Regional green economy efficiency and population aging in China: An empirical data envelopment analysis – Tobit model approach
This study presents an indicator system to assess the green economy efficiency (GEE) of China’s provinces and explores its relationship with population aging. Based on panel data covering 30 provincial-level regions from 2000 to 2020, a slacks-based measure–data envelopment analysis (SBM–DEA) model is employed to evaluate GEE followed by a Tobit regression model to examine the influence of demographic aging on regional performance. The results reveal three key findings: (1) At the national level, GEE shows an overall declining trend, with pronounced spatial disparities. The Eastern region consistently outperformed others, while the Western and Northeastern regions lagged behind. (2) Population aging exhibits a statistically significant positive effect on GEE. Robustness checks confirm the stability of this result. (3) Mechanism analysis suggests that aging primarily improves economic output efficiency rather than environmental performance. (4) Clear regional heterogeneity is observed: in the Eastern region, the relationship follows a U-shaped pattern; in the Central region, a stable positive correlation persists; while in the Western and Northeastern regions, an inverted U-shaped trajectory emerges. These findings underscore the need for regionally differentiated policies that integrate demographic realities with green development strategies, ensuring that aging populations contribute to both economic productivity and environmental sustainability. The study provides evidence to support differentiated population and environmental strategies aimed at promoting a sustainable, low-carbon economy in China.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.60
自引率
5.90%
发文量
92
期刊介绍: Regional Science Policy & Practice (RSPP) is the official policy and practitioner orientated journal of the Regional Science Association International. It is an international journal that publishes high quality papers in applied regional science that explore policy and practice issues in regional and local development. It welcomes papers from a range of academic disciplines and practitioners including planning, public policy, geography, economics and environmental science and related fields. Papers should address the interface between academic debates and policy development and application. RSPP provides an opportunity for academics and policy makers to develop a dialogue to identify and explore many of the challenges facing local and regional economies.
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