中国玉米生育期降水频繁抵消秸秆覆盖增产效应：meta分析

IF 6.8 1区农林科学 Q1 SOIL SCIENCE

Soil & Tillage Research Pub Date : 2025-09-12 DOI:10.1016/j.still.2025.106870

Xuanyue Tong , Xufei Liu , Pute Wu , Yuqing Hang , Lin Zhang , Bokun Jia , Jiasen Zhang , Peishen Cai

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引用次数: 0

摘要

玉米是中国种植最广泛的作物，占粮食总产量的40% %以上。秸秆覆盖通过改善土壤保墒、养分效率和整体土壤健康来提高作物产量，但秸秆覆盖对玉米生育期气象、土壤和管理因子响应的影响尚不清楚。本研究采用meta分析和机器学习相结合的方法，利用27篇106对SM下玉米产量的田间观测资料，量化了气象、土壤和管理因素与中国SM增产效果的关系。结果表明，SM对中国玉米产量有显著的正向影响，增产幅度为7.69 %，气象因子与SM对玉米产量的影响呈高度相关。其中，玉米生育期平均温度（MGTG）和玉米生育期总降水量（TPG）间接影响玉米产量百分比变化（PC），降水频率（PF）直接影响玉米产量百分比变化（PC），并呈负相关关系，说明玉米生育期降水事件的增加可能抵消了SM下玉米增产效应。同时，SM处理下玉米产量的总变化率在SSP245处理下降低了0.34 %（区域差异为- 5-5 %），在SSP585处理下提高了2.28 %（区域差异为- 4-6 %）。此外，在未来气候情景下的预测表明，在降水频率较高的东北和华北地区，SM对玉米的增产作用可能会减弱。这表明，在评估这些地区SM的适用性时，应仔细考虑PF的潜在变化，并可能探索替代或综合覆盖措施，以维持或提高气候条件变化下的玉米产量。

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More frequent precipitation during the maize growth period offsets the yield increasing effect of straw mulching in China: A meta-analysis

Maize is the most widely cultivated crop in China, accounting for over 40 % of the total grain production. Straw mulching (SM) enhances crop production by improving soil moisture retention, nutrient efficiency, and overall soil health, yet it remains unclear how the effectiveness of maize yield under SM affects the response to meteorology, soil and management factors during maize growth period in China. This study combined meta-analysis and machine learning methods, using 106 paired field observations of maize yield under SM in 27 articles to quantify the relationship between meteorology, soil and management factors and yield increasing effect of SM in China. We found that the SM had a positive effect on maize yield in China with an increase by 7.69 % and meteorological factors had a high correlation with the maize yield under SM. Specifically, mean temperature during maize growth period (MGTG) and total precipitation during maize growth period (TPG) indirectly impacted the percentage change (PC) of maize yield and precipitation frequency (PF) directly influenced the PC of maize yield under SM with a negative correlation, indicating that more frequent of precipitation events during the maize growth period might offset the yield increasing effect under SM. Meanwhile, the overall change ratio of maize yield under SM reduced by 0.34 % (regional difference from −5–5 %) under SSP245 and increased by 2.28 % (regional difference from −4–6 %) under SSP585, respectively. Moreover, predictions under future climate scenarios indicated that in Northeast and North China, where precipitation frequency (PF) is relatively high, the yield-promoting effect of SM on maize may be reduced. This suggests that potential changes in PF should be carefully considered when evaluating SM applicability in these regions, and that alternative or integrated mulching measures might be explored to sustain or enhance maize production under changing climatic conditions.

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来源期刊

Soil & Tillage Research 农林科学-土壤科学

CiteScore

13.00

自引率

6.20%

发文量

266

审稿时长

5 months

期刊介绍： Soil & Tillage Research examines the physical, chemical and biological changes in the soil caused by tillage and field traffic. Manuscripts will be considered on aspects of soil science, physics, technology, mechanization and applied engineering for a sustainable balance among productivity, environmental quality and profitability. The following are examples of suitable topics within the scope of the journal of Soil and Tillage Research: The agricultural and biosystems engineering associated with tillage (including no-tillage, reduced-tillage and direct drilling), irrigation and drainage, crops and crop rotations, fertilization, rehabilitation of mine spoils and processes used to modify soils. Soil change effects on establishment and yield of crops, growth of plants and roots, structure and erosion of soil, cycling of carbon and nutrients, greenhouse gas emissions, leaching, runoff and other processes that affect environmental quality. Characterization or modeling of tillage and field traffic responses, soil, climate, or topographic effects, soil deformation processes, tillage tools, traction devices, energy requirements, economics, surface and subsurface water quality effects, tillage effects on weed, pest and disease control, and their interactions.