人口老龄化与经济下行风险加剧：来自中国的证据

IF 4.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-09-10 DOI:10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107304

Xianling Ren, Jinbao Qiao, Jianyue Ji

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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究探讨了人口老龄化对中国经济下行风险的影响，为文献中关于老龄化后果的研究提供了新的证据。虽然之前的研究已经显示了人口老龄化对经济增长的负面影响，但老龄化与经济下行风险之间的关系尚不清楚。本文利用中国各省（2000-2022年）的数据，采用风险增长框架度量各省经济下行风险，并探讨人口老龄化对其的影响。研究发现，人口老龄化显著加剧了经济下行风险，特别是在人口规模较小或经济发展水平较高的地区。技术创新减少、财政赤字增加和消费增长放缓是经济下行风险加剧的驱动因素。此外，发现人口流入可以缓解经济风险。这些结果突出了通过协调措施解决老龄化社会的创新、消费和财政赤字问题来减轻经济下行风险的必要性。

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Population aging and intensified economic downside risk: Evidence from China

This study investigates the impact of population aging on economic downside risk in China, providing new evidence on the consequences of aging in the literature. While previous research has shown the negative impact of population aging on economic growth, the relationship between aging and downside risk remains unclear. Using data from Chinese provinces (2000–2022), we employ Growth at Risk framework to measure provincial economic downside risk and explore the impact of population aging on it. We find that population aging significantly intensifies economic downside risk, particularly in regions with lower population scale or higher economic development. The intensified economic downside risk is driven by reduced technological innovation, higher fiscal deficits, and slower consumption growth. Additionally, population inflows are found to alleviate the economic risk. These results highlight the necessity of mitigating economic downside risks via coordinated measures addressing innovation, consumption, and fiscal deficits in aging societies.

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来源期刊

Economic Modelling ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

8.00

自引率

10.60%

发文量

295

期刊介绍： Economic Modelling fills a major gap in the economics literature, providing a single source of both theoretical and applied papers on economic modelling. The journal prime objective is to provide an international review of the state-of-the-art in economic modelling. Economic Modelling publishes the complete versions of many large-scale models of industrially advanced economies which have been developed for policy analysis. Examples are the Bank of England Model and the US Federal Reserve Board Model which had hitherto been unpublished. As individual models are revised and updated, the journal publishes subsequent papers dealing with these revisions, so keeping its readers as up to date as possible.