From "demographic dividend" to "digital Dividend": An exploration of the path of industrial structure upgrading in the context of aging

This study investigates the transition from "demographic dividend" to "digital dividend" in driving industrial structural upgrading under population aging. Based on balanced panel data from 30 Chinese provinces (2012–2022), a two-way fixed effects model reveals how population aging reshapes industrial dynamics through service-oriented restructuring, while digital transformation emerges as a critical pathway to sustain upgrading momentum. Grouped regression analysis based on digital development levels demonstrates significant interval variations in the effect of aging-driven industrial upgrading across different digital maturity stages. Spatial Durbin model further uncovers dual-path spillovers: aging facilitates positive demonstration effects across neighboring regions, yet digital advancement exhibits a "siphon effect" in economically linked areas, diverting resources from peripheral zones. The empirical results show that: After controlling for regional heterogeneity, the increase in the proportion of the elderly population has a statistically significant positive impact on the restructuring of service-oriented industries; The interaction coefficient between digital transformation and population aging presents nonlinear characteristics, and their synergistic effect is only significant when the digital index exceeds a critical threshold; The spatial effect decomposition indicates that population aging has a positive demonstration effect on the industrial transformation of neighboring regions, while digital development will produce a "siphon effect" in areas with high economic connections, thereby inhibiting the upgrading process of surrounding regions.