Economic and geopolitical push factors, and migration tendencies in Nigeria: The intervening role of institutional quality

This study examines how economic and geopolitical factors influence migration trends in Nigeria, given the increasing emigration of skilled professionals in critical sectors like healthcare and education. Utilizing a predictive analytical framework, we analyse the effects of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) and Geopolitical Risk (GPR) indices on migration decisions. The findings indicate that both EPU and GPR are significant predictors of migration outflows, with economic uncertainty having a stronger impact than geopolitical risk. Furthermore, the study demonstrates that improved institutional quality reduces the migration-inducing effects of both risk factors. These results suggest that enhancement of governance and/or institutional reforms could help mitigate large-scale emigration and the resulting brain drain. The study provides evidence-based insights for policy interventions aimed at retaining skilled labour and addressing the root causes of mass emigration in Nigeria.