高企的公共债务:应该归咎于冲击还是自由裁量的财政政策?

IF 4 1区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Nikhil Patel, Adrian Peralta-Alva
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引用次数: 0

摘要

公共债务与国内生产总值的比率在短期和长期都经历了重大波动。值得注意的是,由于2019冠状病毒病大流行,这一比例在2020年全球飙升,然后到2022年大幅回落。为了阐明这些运动背后的驱动力,我们使用通过叙事符号限制识别的结构向量自回归(SVAR)开发了债务动态的结构分解。我们分析了自20世纪80年代以来17个发达经济体的数据,发现对GDP增长和利率的冲击共同占到观察到的债务与GDP比率年度变化的一半以上,而可自由支配的财政政策变化贡献不到20%。我们的分析还表明,初级平衡乘数对GDP的影响是最小的。我们将我们的研究结果与现有文献相一致,证明先前的差异主要是由于休克识别方法的差异,但也由于跨国异质性。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
High public debts: Are shocks or discretionary fiscal policy to blame?
Public debt to GDP ratios have experienced significant fluctuations over both short and long horizons. Notably, the ratio spiked globally in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, before retracting substantially by 2022. To elucidate the driving forces behind these movements, we develop a structural decomposition of debt dynamics using a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) identified through narrative sign restrictions. Analyzing data from 17 advanced economies since the 1980s, we find that shocks to GDP growth and interest rates collectively account for more than half of the observed annual variation in debt to GDP ratios, while discretionary fiscal policy changes contribute less than 20%. Our analysis also reveals that the primary balance multiplier on GDP is minimal. We reconcile our findings with existing literature by demonstrating that previous discrepancies arise largely from differences in shock identification methods, but also on account of cross-country heterogeneity.
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来源期刊
CiteScore
5.80
自引率
6.10%
发文量
98
期刊介绍: The Journal of International Economics is intended to serve as the primary outlet for theoretical and empirical research in all areas of international economics. These include, but are not limited to the following: trade patterns, commercial policy; international institutions; exchange rates; open economy macroeconomics; international finance; international factor mobility. The Journal especially encourages the submission of articles which are empirical in nature, or deal with issues of open economy macroeconomics and international finance. Theoretical work submitted to the Journal should be original in its motivation or modelling structure. Empirical analysis should be based on a theoretical framework, and should be capable of replication.
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