Study on the synergistic effects of ecological water conveyance and climate change on ecological restoration in arid areas: A case study of the Tarim River Basin

Under the dual pressures of climate change and intensified human activities, ecological degradation and water scarcity in arid regions have become more severe, seriously threatening ecological security and carbon cycling. As a key ecological regulation strategy, ecological water conveyance (EWC) improves ecosystem functions by optimizing water allocation. This study takes the Tarim River (TR) Basin as a case, applying trend and partial derivative analyses to quantify the contributions of climate and human activities to Net Primary Productivity (NPP) changes, revealing the response patterns and driving mechanisms between EWC zones and the entire basin. From 2001 to 2022, NPP showed a fluctuating upward trend, with 25.8 % of the area significantly increasing and only 4.0 % decreasing. Human activities contributed 31.4 % to NPP increases, especially along riverbanks and Populus euphratica restoration zones. During NPP decline periods (2016–2018 and 2020–2022), EWC zones contributed −14.2 % and − 1.8 %, respectively, playing a buffering role. In contrast, during 2018–2020, their contribution reached 16.7 %, highlighting EWC's effectiveness in promoting vegetation recovery. Currently, EWC benefits are mainly concentrated in low-lying floodplains and ecological channels near rivers, while upland areas distant from water sources show limited improvement. Future efforts should focus on constructing a surface-like water network and implementing zoned rotational irrigation to optimize water use, expand restoration, and enhance ecological functions. This research offers scientific evidence for ecological restoration in the TR Basin and provides references for managing similar inland river basins in arid regions worldwide.