非洲对中国的资源出口：是否存在制度性的逐底竞争？

IF 8.7 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Analysis and Policy Pub Date : 2025-09-06 DOI:10.1016/j.eap.2025.09.003

Yanbai Li , Syed Mansoob Murshed , Elissaios Papyrakis , Xudong He

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引用次数: 0

摘要

自21世纪初以来，非洲国家开始将越来越多的资源出口到中国，人们普遍猜测这可能导致一场制度性的“逐底竞争”。我们实证研究了1990年至2017年间45个非洲国家对中国资源出口份额上升对民主化和腐败的影响。我们发现对中国的资源出口对参与式民主和控制腐败具有统计上显著的积极影响。由于政治转型可能被短暂的经济冲击激活，我们利用两阶段最小二乘方法来检验制度的改善是否源于资源出口意外之财带来的国民收入增加。我们发现资源收入渠道对改善腐败控制的实证支持。简而言之，我们的实证分析表明，与中国的资源贸易增长与非洲国家制度质量的改善是可以调和的。

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Africa’s resource exports to China: is there an institutional race to the bottom?

African countries started to channel an increasing portion of their resource exports to China since early 2000s, with widespread speculation that this could lead to an institutional ‘race to the bottom’. We empirically investigate the impact of this rising share of resource exports to China on democratization and corruption in 45 African countries between 1990 and 2017. We find a statistically significant positive effect of resource exports to China on participatory democracy and control of corruption. As political transitions could be activated by transitory economic shocks, we utilize a two-stage least square approach to test whether improvements in institutions result from rising national income as a result of resource-export windfalls. We find empirical support of a resource-income channel for the case of improvements in corruption control. In short, our empirical analysis indicates that rising resource trading with China is reconcilable with improvements in institutional quality for African countries.

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来源期刊

Economic Analysis and Policy ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

9.80

自引率

9.20%

发文量

231

审稿时长

93 days

期刊介绍： Economic Analysis and Policy (established 1970) publishes articles from all branches of economics with a particular focus on research, theoretical and applied, which has strong policy relevance. The journal also publishes survey articles and empirical replications on key policy issues. Authors are expected to highlight the main insights in a non-technical introduction and in the conclusion.