Rural E-commerce diffusion and arable land Non-grainization: Evidence from 1145 counties in China

The growth of rural e-commerce is considered as a crucial for driving rural economic growth, and its external effects on agricultural production deserve close attention. This paper is to empirically investigates the impact of rural e-commerce on the conversion of arable land to non-grainization (ALNG) by analyzing macro-level county panel data and micro-level data from the China Land Economic Survey. The research findings show that rural e-commerce development significantly contributes to the conversion of ALNG, highlighting its adverse externality on food production. This conclusion remains consistent through various robustness tests. Further analysis indicates that non-agricultural training enhances the influence of e-commerce on ALNG, while an increase in agricultural labor input reduces this effect. Heterogeneity analysis demonstrates that rural e-commerce significantly increased the conversion of ALNG in regions with underdeveloped agricultural economies, whereas no significant impact is observed in more developed agricultural areas. Additionally, the development of rural e-commerce has a positive influence on ALNG among small-scale farmers, but shows no effect on the large-scale farmers. This study not only presents the academic discourse on the impact of the growth of rural e-commerce in food production but also provides new insights into balancing rural economic development and food security, particularly for countries that rely on e-commerce to drive rural economies.