Age-period-cohort analysis of cardiovascular disease trends in middle-aged and older adults: cross-country comparison across HRS, ELSA, SHARE, and CHARLS.

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of death globally, while the dynamics of CVD risk across different age groups, periods, and birth cohorts remain unclear. This study investigates how age, period, and cohort effects contribute to CVD risk across regions differently.

Methods: We employed a repeated cross-sectional design, analysing data from four large longitudinal surveys in the USA, UK, Europe, and China. A hierarchical age-period-cohort analysis was conducted using Bayesian inference through the integrated nested Laplace approximation to model the effects of age, period, and cohort on CVD risk across these regions. Subgroup analyses were also conducted to examine the moderation effects of social-demographic factors.

Results: CVD risk increases with age across all regions, peaking at age 75 in China while continuously rising in other areas. Period effects showed a significant increase in CVD risk over time in the USA, UK, and China, while a decline was observed in Europe after 2017. More recent birth cohorts showed a lower CVD risk, especially in the USA and UK. In China, the decrease in risk among recent cohorts was less pronounced. Gender, marital status, education, rural residence, and smoking moderated CVD risk trends across regions.

Conclusions: This study highlights the importance of age, period, and cohort effects in understanding regional differences in CVD risk among middle-aged and older adults. Findings suggest that public health interventions should be tailored to specific regions and demographic groups to reduce CVD burden effectively.