Pain predicts being out of work, especially for those with low job control: longitudinal analysis of adults in Australia.

Objective: While work provides a crucial source of income and purpose, pain can be a significant limiting factor. Yet robust empirical evidence on the factors underlying the link between pain and being out of work remains scarce. We explore the longitudinal association between pain and being out of work and potential explanatory factors.

Methods: We used nationally representative longitudinal data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics of Australia Survey (n=25 973, number of observations=233 989, 2002-2022). We conducted individual fixed effects regressions with a wide range of covariates.

Results: We found that pain in a given year was significantly positively associated with the likelihood of being out of work the year after. Pain interference with work explained this link. This association was moderated by job control: participants who reported very severe pain and low job control were more likely (10.6%) to lose their job next year than those who reported very severe pain and high job control (6.7%).

Conclusions: Pain was associated with being out of work, with job control moderating that link. Having the autonomy to flexibly adapt the nature of work tasks to accommodate pain may protect against being out of work.