通过双向行为反应加强资源有限环境下的疾病控制。

IF 2.2 4区 数学 Q2 BIOLOGY
Sujit Halder, Sudipta Panda, Amit Samadder, Joydev Chattopadhyay
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引用次数: 0

摘要

人类行为在减轻传染病的全球传播方面起着关键作用,是有效控制疾病工作不可或缺的特征。虽然先前的研究已经通过感染的力量或基于流行的招募来检查疾病控制中的行为改变,但这些方法的综合效果在很大程度上仍未被探索。为了弥补这一差距,我们开发了一个数学模型,该模型从两个角度整合了行为改变,重点关注资源有限的环境——这是管理再次出现的疾病的关键因素。我们的分析结果表明,疾病动力学不仅受基本繁殖数(r0)的影响,还受阈值(R c)的调节,这可能导致疾病通过后向分岔而持续存在。该模型揭示了一个复杂的动态视图,突出了行为改变在抑制多波感染中的复杂作用。为了优化行为策略,我们引入了一种轮廓区域优化方法来确定最有效的响应。使用来自美国猴痘暴发的真实数据。和刚果民主共和国(2024年1月7日至8月13日),我们估计了这两个地区的关键参数。结果显示,当行为干预针对两种传播途径时,与只关注一种途径相比,r0显著降低。此外,我们还对这些干预措施的效果进行了短期和长期预测,为资源受限的国家提供了可行的见解。这项研究强调了行为适应在加强疾病控制措施和推进可持续公共卫生工作方面的重要性,即使在资源稀少的地区也是如此。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Enhancing Disease Control in Resource-Limited Settings Through Bidirectional Behavioral Responses.

Human behavior plays a pivotal role in mitigating the global spread of infectious diseases, rendering it an indispensable characteristic of effective disease control efforts. While prior research has examined behavioral changes in disease control either through the force of infection or prevalence-based recruitment, the combined effects of these approaches remain largely unexplored. To bridge this gap, we develop a mathematical model that integrates behavioral modifications from both perspectives, with a focus on resource-limited settings-a critical factor for managing re-emerging diseases. Our analytical results indicate that disease dynamics are influenced not only by the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) but also regulated by a threshold value ( R c ), which can lead to disease persistence through backward bifurcation. The model reveals a complex dynamic view, highlighting the intricate role of behavioral modifications in suppressing multiple waves of infection. To optimize behavioral strategies, we introduce a contour-area optimization method to identify the most effective responses. Using real-world data from the Monkeypox outbreaks in the United States of America. and the Democratic Republic of Congo (spanning January 7 to August 13, 2024), we estimated critical parameters for both regions. The results highlight a significant reduction in R 0 when behavioral interventions targeted both transmission pathways, compared to focusing solely on one. Furthermore, we provide short- and long-term forecasts of the effects of these interventions, offering actionable insights for resource-constrained countries. This research underscores the importance of behavioral adaptations in strengthening disease control measures and advancing sustainable public health efforts, even in regions with sparse resources.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.90
自引率
8.60%
发文量
123
审稿时长
7.5 months
期刊介绍: The Bulletin of Mathematical Biology, the official journal of the Society for Mathematical Biology, disseminates original research findings and other information relevant to the interface of biology and the mathematical sciences. Contributions should have relevance to both fields. In order to accommodate the broad scope of new developments, the journal accepts a variety of contributions, including: Original research articles focused on new biological insights gained with the help of tools from the mathematical sciences or new mathematical tools and methods with demonstrated applicability to biological investigations Research in mathematical biology education Reviews Commentaries Perspectives, and contributions that discuss issues important to the profession All contributions are peer-reviewed.
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