Ryan Yanzhe Lim, Faith Xin Ning Tan, Glenn Jun Kit Ho, Ethan Kai Jun Tham, Alfred Kow, Guoyue Lv, Zhong-Qi Fan, Nicholas Syn, Masahito Nakano, Wenhao Li, Karn Wijarnpreecha, Jörn M Schattenberg, Vincent Chen, Ming-Hua Zheng, Pojsakorn Danpanichkul, Hirokazu Takahashi, Cheng Han Ng, Yoshio Sumida, Atsushi Nakajima, Mazen Noureddin, Mark D Muthiah, Daniel Q Huang
{"title":"肝细胞癌在代谢功能障碍相关脂肪变性肝病中的发病率：重建个体患者数据荟萃分析","authors":"Ryan Yanzhe Lim, Faith Xin Ning Tan, Glenn Jun Kit Ho, Ethan Kai Jun Tham, Alfred Kow, Guoyue Lv, Zhong-Qi Fan, Nicholas Syn, Masahito Nakano, Wenhao Li, Karn Wijarnpreecha, Jörn M Schattenberg, Vincent Chen, Ming-Hua Zheng, Pojsakorn Danpanichkul, Hirokazu Takahashi, Cheng Han Ng, Yoshio Sumida, Atsushi Nakajima, Mazen Noureddin, Mark D Muthiah, Daniel Q Huang","doi":"10.1016/j.cgh.2025.08.036","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background & aims: </strong>Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is the fastest rising etiology of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The time-dependent incidence of HCC in people with MASLD has not been reported. We aimed to provide robust estimates for HCC incidence in MASLD.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Medline and Embase were searched from inception to November 2024. Individual participant data were reconstructed from published Kaplan-Meier curves, and a pooled analysis of cumulative HCC incidence from time-to-event data was performed using a random-effects model.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>We screened 4951 articles and included 26 studies (3,995,728 individuals). The 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year cumulative incidence of HCC in people with MASLD and known advanced fibrosis was 0.8%, 2.4%, 3.9%, and 8.8%, respectively, in administrative database studies, and 3.9%, 11.7%, 21.0% and 48.5%, respectively, in hospital/clinic-based studies. The 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year cumulative incidence of HCC in people with MASLD but without advanced fibrosis was 0.1%, 0.5%, 0.7%, and 1.3%, respectively, in administrative database studies, and 1.6%, 4.7%, 8.2%, and 18.3%, respectively, in hospital/clinic-based studies. Selection bias may contribute to the elevated risk in hospital/clinic-based studies. The risk of HCC in patients with advanced fibrosis was significantly higher compared with those without advanced fibrosis in both administrative database (hazard ratio [HR], 11.09; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.68-45.89; P < .001) and hospital/clinic-based studies (HR, 10.50; 95% CI, 3.19-34.51; P < .001).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>This reconstructed individual participant data meta-analysis provides updated estimates for HCC incidence in people with MASLD. The incidence of HCC is elevated in people with MASLD and advanced fibrosis. These data may have implications for further research in HCC surveillance and future development of surveillance algorithms.</p>","PeriodicalId":10347,"journal":{"name":"Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":12.0000,"publicationDate":"2025-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Incidence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Metabolic Dysfunction-associated Steatotic Liver Disease: A Reconstructed Individual Patient Data Meta-analysis.\",\"authors\":\"Ryan Yanzhe Lim, Faith Xin Ning Tan, Glenn Jun Kit Ho, Ethan Kai Jun Tham, Alfred Kow, Guoyue Lv, Zhong-Qi Fan, Nicholas Syn, Masahito Nakano, Wenhao Li, Karn Wijarnpreecha, Jörn M Schattenberg, Vincent Chen, Ming-Hua Zheng, Pojsakorn Danpanichkul, Hirokazu Takahashi, Cheng Han Ng, Yoshio Sumida, Atsushi Nakajima, Mazen Noureddin, Mark D Muthiah, Daniel Q Huang\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.cgh.2025.08.036\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background & aims: </strong>Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is the fastest rising etiology of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The time-dependent incidence of HCC in people with MASLD has not been reported. We aimed to provide robust estimates for HCC incidence in MASLD.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Medline and Embase were searched from inception to November 2024. Individual participant data were reconstructed from published Kaplan-Meier curves, and a pooled analysis of cumulative HCC incidence from time-to-event data was performed using a random-effects model.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>We screened 4951 articles and included 26 studies (3,995,728 individuals). The 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year cumulative incidence of HCC in people with MASLD and known advanced fibrosis was 0.8%, 2.4%, 3.9%, and 8.8%, respectively, in administrative database studies, and 3.9%, 11.7%, 21.0% and 48.5%, respectively, in hospital/clinic-based studies. The 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year cumulative incidence of HCC in people with MASLD but without advanced fibrosis was 0.1%, 0.5%, 0.7%, and 1.3%, respectively, in administrative database studies, and 1.6%, 4.7%, 8.2%, and 18.3%, respectively, in hospital/clinic-based studies. Selection bias may contribute to the elevated risk in hospital/clinic-based studies. The risk of HCC in patients with advanced fibrosis was significantly higher compared with those without advanced fibrosis in both administrative database (hazard ratio [HR], 11.09; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.68-45.89; P < .001) and hospital/clinic-based studies (HR, 10.50; 95% CI, 3.19-34.51; P < .001).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>This reconstructed individual participant data meta-analysis provides updated estimates for HCC incidence in people with MASLD. The incidence of HCC is elevated in people with MASLD and advanced fibrosis. These data may have implications for further research in HCC surveillance and future development of surveillance algorithms.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":10347,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":12.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-09-09\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cgh.2025.08.036\",\"RegionNum\":1,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cgh.2025.08.036","RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Incidence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Metabolic Dysfunction-associated Steatotic Liver Disease: A Reconstructed Individual Patient Data Meta-analysis.
Background & aims: Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is the fastest rising etiology of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The time-dependent incidence of HCC in people with MASLD has not been reported. We aimed to provide robust estimates for HCC incidence in MASLD.
Methods: Medline and Embase were searched from inception to November 2024. Individual participant data were reconstructed from published Kaplan-Meier curves, and a pooled analysis of cumulative HCC incidence from time-to-event data was performed using a random-effects model.
Results: We screened 4951 articles and included 26 studies (3,995,728 individuals). The 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year cumulative incidence of HCC in people with MASLD and known advanced fibrosis was 0.8%, 2.4%, 3.9%, and 8.8%, respectively, in administrative database studies, and 3.9%, 11.7%, 21.0% and 48.5%, respectively, in hospital/clinic-based studies. The 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year cumulative incidence of HCC in people with MASLD but without advanced fibrosis was 0.1%, 0.5%, 0.7%, and 1.3%, respectively, in administrative database studies, and 1.6%, 4.7%, 8.2%, and 18.3%, respectively, in hospital/clinic-based studies. Selection bias may contribute to the elevated risk in hospital/clinic-based studies. The risk of HCC in patients with advanced fibrosis was significantly higher compared with those without advanced fibrosis in both administrative database (hazard ratio [HR], 11.09; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.68-45.89; P < .001) and hospital/clinic-based studies (HR, 10.50; 95% CI, 3.19-34.51; P < .001).
Conclusion: This reconstructed individual participant data meta-analysis provides updated estimates for HCC incidence in people with MASLD. The incidence of HCC is elevated in people with MASLD and advanced fibrosis. These data may have implications for further research in HCC surveillance and future development of surveillance algorithms.
期刊介绍：
Clinical Gastroenterology and Hepatology (CGH) is dedicated to offering readers a comprehensive exploration of themes in clinical gastroenterology and hepatology. Encompassing diagnostic, endoscopic, interventional, and therapeutic advances, the journal covers areas such as cancer, inflammatory diseases, functional gastrointestinal disorders, nutrition, absorption, and secretion.
As a peer-reviewed publication, CGH features original articles and scholarly reviews, ensuring immediate relevance to the practice of gastroenterology and hepatology. Beyond peer-reviewed content, the journal includes invited key reviews and articles on endoscopy/practice-based technology, health-care policy, and practice management. Multimedia elements, including images, video abstracts, and podcasts, enhance the reader's experience. CGH remains actively engaged with its audience through updates and commentary shared via platforms such as Facebook and Twitter.
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