金融市场风险感知的神经科学:气候政策的不确定性如何影响印度和美国投资者的认知。

IF 2.4 Q4 NEUROSCIENCES
Pravin Kumar Agrawal, Mohit Kumar, Vibha Kushwaha, Shubham Goenka, Supriya Agrawal, Gagan Rana
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引用次数: 0

摘要

背景:气候相关风险对金融市场的影响越来越大,最重要的是气候监管方面的政策风险。这些风险不仅会影响市场动态,还会影响投资者对风险的认知和情绪反应。了解气候政策与市场波动之间的相互作用对经济预测和行为金融学都至关重要。目的:本研究旨在研究气候政策不确定性与主要股票市场指数(印度的Nifty 50和Sensex指数,以及美国的纳斯达克和道琼斯指数)波动之间的动态关系,并探讨投资者对这种不确定性的潜在神经行为反应。方法:利用2010年4月1日至2024年3月31日的月度数据,确定气候政策不确定性与印度基准指数Nifty 50和Sensex以及美国股市指数Nasdaq和Dow Jones之间的动态关系。本文采用了Diebold和Yilmaz的连通性框架和WC方法进行数据分析。该分析是通过神经经济学的视角来解释的,考虑了气候政策的不确定性如何影响金融决策中的认知风险处理。结果:研究结果表明,Sensex、纳斯达克和道琼斯等指数对气候政策不确定性的反应比其他指数更敏感。这些趋势表明,全球投资者的反应不仅是战略性的,而且还受到心理紧张和风险感知机制的影响。结论:气候政策的不确定性对股市波动产生显著影响,其深远影响超出了经典经济指标,包括投资者认知和神经行为反应。目前的研究结果强调将神经科学的方法纳入金融决策,为投资者和政策制定者提供有关风险管理、投资组合最大化和解释环境不确定性下的行为反应的重要反馈。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
The Neuroscience of Risk Perception in Financial Markets: How Climate Policy Uncertainty Affects Investor Cognition in India and the USA.

Background: Climate related risks are increasingly affecting financial markets, most importantly, policy risk regarding climate regulation. Not only do such risks impact market dynamics, but they can also have an impact on investor behaviour as cognitive and emotional reactions to risk. Understanding the interplay between climate policy and market volatility is essential for both economic forecasting and behavioural finance.

Purpose: This study aims to examine the dynamic relationship between climate policy uncertainty and the volatility of major stock market indices viz. Nifty 50 and Sensex in India, and Nasdaq and Dow Jones in the USA and exploring potential neurobehavioural responses of investors to such uncertainty.

Methods: This research aims to determine the dynamic relationship between climate policy uncertainty, Indian benchmark indices Nifty 50 and Sensex, and USA stock market indices Nasdaq and Dow Jones for the monthly data from 1st April 2010 to 31st March 2024. The article has adopted Diebold and Yilmaz's connectedness framework and WC approach for data analysis. The analysis is interpreted through the lens of neuroeconomics, considering how climate policy uncertainty may influence cognitive risk processing in financial decision-making.

Results: Findings show that indices such as Sensex, Nasdaq and Dow Jones are more responsive to climate policy uncertainty compared with others. These trends suggest that the reactions of global investors are not only strategic but also subject to psychological tension and risk perception mechanisms.

Conclusion: Uncertainty in climate policy exerts a notable influence on stock market volatility with far-reaching implications extending beyond the classical economic indicators to encompass investor cognition and neurobehavioural reactions. The outcome of the current research underscores incorporating neuroscience-informed methods into financial decision-making, providing significant feedback for investors and policymakers regarding risk management, portfolio maximisation and interpreting behavioural responses under environmental uncertainty.

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来源期刊
Annals of Neurosciences
Annals of Neurosciences NEUROSCIENCES-
CiteScore
2.40
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发文量
39
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