Analysis of carbon balance in the Yangtze River Delta region based on land use dynamics

In the context of global climate change, increasing carbon emissions have become a major challenge to the sustainable development of human society. It is of great practical significance to scientifically assess the regional carbon budget status, to coordinate social and economic development and ecological environmental protection, and to promote the implementation of the “dual carbon” (carbon peak and carbon neutrality) strategy. In this study, the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration was taken as the research object, and the total regional carbon emissions from 2010 to 2020 were systematically calculated using the carbon emission coefficient method. Based on the land use data obtained from remote sensing images in different periods, the spatiotemporal evolution of land cover in the study area was deeply analyzed. The spatial correlation analysis method is used to reveal the spatial correlation characteristics and evolution trend of carbon emissions, in which the global spatial autocorrelation test confirms the significant spatial dependence of carbon emissions, and the local spatial correlation analysis identifies a variety of typical spatial agglomeration patterns. The cold and hot spot analysis model accurately defines the core areas of high carbon emissions, which provides data support for the implementation of regional differentiated emission reduction strategies. In addition, the independent contribution of each driving factor and its interaction effect were quantitatively evaluated with the help of the geographic detector model. The results show that the study area continues to be in a state of carbon deficit during the observation period, and although the emission growth rate shows a slowdown trend, the total amount still grows. The spatial pattern of carbon emissions is significantly heterogeneous. The core driving factors such as GDP, industrial structure, fixed asset investment, energy consumption efficiency, and policy support not only play a significant role in their own actions, but their synergistic effects also show nonlinear enhancement characteristics. The research results not only provide a theoretical basis for the low-carbon development planning in the Yangtze River Delta region, but also provide a scientific reference for the formulation and implementation of carbon emission reduction policies at the national level, and have important practical value for promoting the construction of ecological civilization and realizing the strategic goal of “dual carbon.”