Peihua Wang, Jianjiu Chen, Wenyi Zhang, Yong Wang, Wan Yang
{"title":"气候条件对中国麻疹传播影响的模拟。","authors":"Peihua Wang, Jianjiu Chen, Wenyi Zhang, Yong Wang, Wan Yang","doi":"10.1017/S095026882510054X","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Climate conditions are known to modulate infectious disease transmission, yet their impact on measles transmission remains underexplored. In this study, we investigate the extent to which climate conditions modulate measles transmission, utilizing measles incidence data during 2005-2008 from China. Three climate-forced models were employed: a sinusoidal function, an absolute humidity (AH)-forced model, and an AH and temperature (AH/T)-forced model. These models were integrated into an inference framework consisting of a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model and an iterated filter (IF2) to estimate epidemiological characteristics and assess climate influences on measles transmission. During the study period, measles epidemics peaked in spring in northern China and were more diverse in the south. Our analyses showed that the AH/T model better captured measles epidemic dynamics in northern China, suggesting a combined impact of humidity and temperature on measles transmission. Furthermore, we preliminarily examined the impact of other factors and found that population susceptibility and incidence rate were both positively correlated with migrant worker influx, suggesting that higher susceptibility among migrant workers may sustain measles transmission. Taken together, our study supports a role of humidity and temperature in modulating measles transmission and identifies additional factors in shaping measles epidemic dynamics in China.</p>","PeriodicalId":11721,"journal":{"name":"Epidemiology and Infection","volume":" ","pages":"e110"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2000,"publicationDate":"2025-09-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Modeling the influences of climate conditions on measles transmission in China.\",\"authors\":\"Peihua Wang, Jianjiu Chen, Wenyi Zhang, Yong Wang, Wan Yang\",\"doi\":\"10.1017/S095026882510054X\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><p>Climate conditions are known to modulate infectious disease transmission, yet their impact on measles transmission remains underexplored. In this study, we investigate the extent to which climate conditions modulate measles transmission, utilizing measles incidence data during 2005-2008 from China. Three climate-forced models were employed: a sinusoidal function, an absolute humidity (AH)-forced model, and an AH and temperature (AH/T)-forced model. These models were integrated into an inference framework consisting of a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model and an iterated filter (IF2) to estimate epidemiological characteristics and assess climate influences on measles transmission. During the study period, measles epidemics peaked in spring in northern China and were more diverse in the south. Our analyses showed that the AH/T model better captured measles epidemic dynamics in northern China, suggesting a combined impact of humidity and temperature on measles transmission. Furthermore, we preliminarily examined the impact of other factors and found that population susceptibility and incidence rate were both positively correlated with migrant worker influx, suggesting that higher susceptibility among migrant workers may sustain measles transmission. Taken together, our study supports a role of humidity and temperature in modulating measles transmission and identifies additional factors in shaping measles epidemic dynamics in China.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":11721,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Epidemiology and Infection\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"e110\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.2000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-09-11\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Epidemiology and Infection\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1017/S095026882510054X\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"INFECTIOUS DISEASES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Epidemiology and Infection","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S095026882510054X","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"INFECTIOUS DISEASES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Modeling the influences of climate conditions on measles transmission in China.
Climate conditions are known to modulate infectious disease transmission, yet their impact on measles transmission remains underexplored. In this study, we investigate the extent to which climate conditions modulate measles transmission, utilizing measles incidence data during 2005-2008 from China. Three climate-forced models were employed: a sinusoidal function, an absolute humidity (AH)-forced model, and an AH and temperature (AH/T)-forced model. These models were integrated into an inference framework consisting of a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model and an iterated filter (IF2) to estimate epidemiological characteristics and assess climate influences on measles transmission. During the study period, measles epidemics peaked in spring in northern China and were more diverse in the south. Our analyses showed that the AH/T model better captured measles epidemic dynamics in northern China, suggesting a combined impact of humidity and temperature on measles transmission. Furthermore, we preliminarily examined the impact of other factors and found that population susceptibility and incidence rate were both positively correlated with migrant worker influx, suggesting that higher susceptibility among migrant workers may sustain measles transmission. Taken together, our study supports a role of humidity and temperature in modulating measles transmission and identifies additional factors in shaping measles epidemic dynamics in China.
期刊介绍:
Epidemiology & Infection publishes original reports and reviews on all aspects of infection in humans and animals. Particular emphasis is given to the epidemiology, prevention and control of infectious diseases. The scope covers the zoonoses, outbreaks, food hygiene, vaccine studies, statistics and the clinical, social and public-health aspects of infectious disease, as well as some tropical infections. It has become the key international periodical in which to find the latest reports on recently discovered infections and new technology. For those concerned with policy and planning for the control of infections, the papers on mathematical modelling of epidemics caused by historical, current and emergent infections are of particular value.