Physician Assistant Education Association End of Curriculum Exam as a Predictor for Physician Assistant National Certifying Examination Performance.

Introduction: Physician assistant programs use summative evaluations to assess near graduates, with many using the PA Education Association (PAEA) End of Curriculum (EOC) exam to assess the medical knowledge component. Accurate identification of those students at risk of low Physician Assistant National Certifying Examination (PANCE) performance is imperative. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the relationship between the outcomes of the PAEA EOC exam and the PANCE.

Methods: PA Education Association EOC and PANCE outcomes from 2021 to 2023 graduating cohorts across 6 PA programs were analyzed (N = 789). Correlation, odds ratio (OR), and receiver operator characteristic curve analyses were used for EOC data and PANCE performance relationships. National statistics for mean EOC, mean PANCE, and demographics were compared with study data to determine generalizability.

Results: The study results indicate a very strong correlation (r = 0.709) between the PAEA EOC score and PANCE scores. For each 10-point increase in EOC score, the odds of high PANCE performance increased by 47% (OR = 1.47) while the odds of low, very low, and failing PANCE performance decreased by 31% (OR = 0.69), 33% (OR = 0.67), and 42% (OR = 0.58), respectively.

Discussion: This multi-institutional study provides relational data between the PAEA EOC exam and PANCE, filling a gap in prior literature. The results of this study demonstrated a high correlation between the PAEA EOC exam scores and PANCE performance. Logistic regression models offer guidance for identifying high and low-performing students and a mechanism for programs to identify their at-risk students using the PAEA EOC exam outcomes.