A city-level assessment framework for low-carbon transition of residential district heating in China

The energy transition of residential district heating (RDH) in China has achieved remarkable progress, driven by improvements in heating efficiency, optimization of energy structures, and enhanced building energy performance on the demand side. The implementation of clean heating policies has further accelerated this process. This study develops a Low-carbon Energy Transition Index (L-ETI) to evaluate the progress of RDH energy transition in 129 cities from 2013 to 2022, focusing on two dimensions: energy system performance and transition readiness. Our findings reveal significant disparities in the energy transition progress among cities. Although the L-ETI scores for RDH have generally increased over time, the transition faces substantial challenges due to insufficient driving forces. We demonstrate the positive impact of clean heating policies on promoting RDH energy transition, particularly in the “2+26” key cities. Furthermore, we estimate that if the heating facility mix and building energy efficiency levels (adjusted for climatic factors) in all cities were elevated to the top 10% national benchmark, total carbon emissions from RDH could be reduced by 50.5 MtCO₂ (14.0%). This study provides an in-depth analysis of RDH energy transition, offering valuable insights for similar analyses in other sectors and serving as a reference for city policymakers.