Resilience of urban road networks to climate change: a spatial-topological approach

As climate change intensifies, ensuring the resilience of urban road networks against mid- to long-term climatic shifts is crucial. This study develops a novel framework combining complex network theory, topological measures, and spatial climate exposure to assess road network resilience under climate change scenarios, focusing on precipitation and temperature changes. Entropy-weighted TOPSIS identifies key network components based on combined topological and spatial criteria, while resilience is evaluated through four component removal strategies: random, topological-based, climate-based, and spatial-topological. Metrics such as normalized efficiency, relative size of the giant component, average shortest path, and diameter are analyzed. Applying this approach to Duisburg, Germany, results highlight that central and southeastern regions require priority climate adaptation, containing key components especially under SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0 precipitation scenarios, where resilience is lower. The study underscores the necessity of integrating spatial and topological factors for effective climate adaptation planning.