未来气候变化下城市公交地铁系统对洪水的恢复力评价

IF 7.7 1区工程技术 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment Pub Date : 2025-07-25 DOI:10.1016/j.trd.2025.104925

Chengchen Guo , Jingyuan Tang , Jingke Hong , Qiuchen Lu , Hengliang Wu , Ran Wei

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引用次数: 0

摘要

城市公交和地铁系统（UBMS）面临着日益严重的洪水威胁。气候变化的不确定性和缺乏基于阶段的恢复力评估可能会歪曲对生态系统的影响。因此，本研究设计了一个多维度、多阶段的弹性评估框架。该框架包括一个评估气候变化下洪水风险的多维方法和一个量化复原力的多阶段模型。基于交通矢量数据和旅客出行调查数据，分析了重庆中心区城市交通管理系统在洪水条件下的弹性。结果表明：在SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5情景下，洪水风险分别影响了6.9%、13.1%和22.6%的桥段，在风险强度为100时，导致UBMS的稳健性分别下降了23%、35%和53%。此外，级联故障对UBMS的影响可能是深远而迅速的，甚至会导致系统瘫痪，甚至超过洪水的直接影响。

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Resilience assessment of urban bus-metro system to floods under future climate change

The urban bus and metro system (UBMS) faces increasing flood threats. Climate change uncertainties and lack of stage-based resilience assessment may misrepresent the impacts on UBMS. Therefore, this study designs a multi-dimensional multi-stage resilience assessment framework. The framework includes a multi-dimensional approach to evaluate flood risk under climate change and a multi-stage model to quantify resilience. The resilience of the UBMS in Chongqing central area under floods is analyzed based on traffic vector data and passenger travel survey data. The results show that flood risk affects 6.9%, 13.1% and 22.6% of the segments in the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, resulting in a decrease in the robustness of the UBMS by 23%, 35% and 53%, respectively, at a risk intensity of 100. Additionally, the impact of cascading failures on the UBMS can be profound and rapid, causing system paralysis that even exceed the direct impact of flooding.

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来源期刊

Transportation Research Part D-transport and Environment 工程技术-运输科技

CiteScore

14.40

自引率

9.20%

发文量

314

审稿时长

39 days

期刊介绍： Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment focuses on original research exploring the environmental impacts of transportation, policy responses to these impacts, and their implications for transportation system design, planning, and management. The journal comprehensively covers the interaction between transportation and the environment, ranging from local effects on specific geographical areas to global implications such as natural resource depletion and atmospheric pollution. We welcome research papers across all transportation modes, including maritime, air, and land transportation, assessing their environmental impacts broadly. Papers addressing both mobile aspects and transportation infrastructure are considered. The journal prioritizes empirical findings and policy responses of regulatory, planning, technical, or fiscal nature. Articles are policy-driven, accessible, and applicable to readers from diverse disciplines, emphasizing relevance and practicality. We encourage interdisciplinary submissions and welcome contributions from economically developing and advanced countries alike, reflecting our international orientation.