Ideology beyond elections: Path dependence in local public service provision

Why do some public services remain in-house while others are outsourced? This long-standing question has garnered considerable attention from both scholars and practitioners, resulting in a rich yet inconclusive body of research, particularly regarding the role of political ideology. Although left-wing governments are often assumed to favor public provision, empirical findings remain mixed. We argue that this ambiguity stems from a narrow, short-term view of ideology that overlooks institutional path dependence. Using data on seven local services across 156 French municipalities, we show that the cumulative presence of left-wing mayors over time significantly increases the likelihood of in-house provision. This long-term ideological anchoring effect is particularly salient for services that are highly sensitive to voters or embedded in long-term governance structures. Our results suggest that ideology matters—not episodically, but persistently and under specific service-level conditions.