The impact of low-altitude airspace opening policy on aviation manufacturing innovation: A double machine learning approach

Since 2010, China has been reforming low-altitude airspace management and has implemented the low-altitude airspace opening policy aimed at reducing the restrictions on low-altitude airspace and stimulating the development of the low-altitude economy. To explore the implications of the low-altitude airspace opening policy (LAAOP) and promote innovation development in enterprises, this paper employs double machine learning-based causal inference methods to examine the impact of the policy on aviation manufacturing industry innovation, using data from listed Chinese aviation manufacturing firms between 2003 and 2023. The results indicate that the policy has enhanced the innovation capacity of the sector. The conclusion is robustly validated through both Difference-in-Differences (DiD) and Generalized Random Forest (GRF) models. Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the policy exerts a stronger positive effect on the drone enterprises, state-owned enterprises, and coastal region enterprises. Accordingly, this paper offers a series of policy recommendations to optimize policy implementation and promote high-quality development within China’s aviation manufacturing industry.