Stakeholder-Driven Consequence Modeling Employing Cross-Impact Balance Scenario Analysis

Future research, including participatory research, can help to explore stakeholder perspectives. This capability is observable in scenario methods such as the cross-impact balance analysis that aggregates factors from which scenarios and further research opportunities are derivable. In this methodologically oriented paper, a modeling idea is explored, in which consequences are considered as flexible factors in the modeling process, rather than drawing on fixed impact-consequence linkages. The study proposes an extension that explicitly models implicitly acting consequences to increase stakeholder involvement and system understanding. In this regard, the manuscript argues that this approach enables reflection on the modeling and potential results during this process, as they are constructed around these consequences or, more generally, system indicators. Thus, this approach provides an opportunity to integrate cross-impact assessment more effectively into stakeholder dialog by facilitating the tracking and discussion of structures. The study also illustrates the methodological approach by highlighting its application to the topic of water governance. In addition to the potential for utilizing this approach in workshops and participatory co-modeling, the most significant initial finding of this study is that the explication of consequences could serve as a suitable foundation for further studies focusing on stakeholder involvement or impact analysis.