{"title":"发展高铁有利于碳减排吗?","authors":"Junjie Zhu, Hongfeng Guo","doi":"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.039","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study investigates, both theoretically and empirically, the causal impacts of the opening of high-speed rail (HSR) on total carbon emissions in China from 2002 to 2021. Exploiting a staggered Difference-in-Differences approach combined time and cross-city variations in the opening of HSR services, we find that, through traffic and economic re-equilibriums, the HSR contributes to the mitigation of climate change. The opening of HSR significantly reduces carbon emissions by at least 1.74 % on average but with noteworthy spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Consistent with the New Economic Geography, the <em>Four-Vertical-and-Four-Horizontal</em> HSR network demonstrates a prominent heterogeneous spatial distribution of impacts on emissions. We quantitatively reveal the HSR's contribution to climate change mitigation with a saved social carbon cost of no less than $30.97 billion. Given spillovers with heterogeneity, this study provides evidence for transportation planners with an emphasis on tailored line planning for regional balance.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48378,"journal":{"name":"Transport Policy","volume":"172 ","pages":"Article 103758"},"PeriodicalIF":6.3000,"publicationDate":"2025-07-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Does the development of high-speed rail benefit carbon emissions reduction?\",\"authors\":\"Junjie Zhu, Hongfeng Guo\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.07.039\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><div>This study investigates, both theoretically and empirically, the causal impacts of the opening of high-speed rail (HSR) on total carbon emissions in China from 2002 to 2021. Exploiting a staggered Difference-in-Differences approach combined time and cross-city variations in the opening of HSR services, we find that, through traffic and economic re-equilibriums, the HSR contributes to the mitigation of climate change. The opening of HSR significantly reduces carbon emissions by at least 1.74 % on average but with noteworthy spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Consistent with the New Economic Geography, the <em>Four-Vertical-and-Four-Horizontal</em> HSR network demonstrates a prominent heterogeneous spatial distribution of impacts on emissions. We quantitatively reveal the HSR's contribution to climate change mitigation with a saved social carbon cost of no less than $30.97 billion. Given spillovers with heterogeneity, this study provides evidence for transportation planners with an emphasis on tailored line planning for regional balance.</div></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":48378,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Transport Policy\",\"volume\":\"172 \",\"pages\":\"Article 103758\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":6.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-07-29\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Transport Policy\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"5\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X25002926\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"工程技术\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Transport Policy","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967070X25002926","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Does the development of high-speed rail benefit carbon emissions reduction?
This study investigates, both theoretically and empirically, the causal impacts of the opening of high-speed rail (HSR) on total carbon emissions in China from 2002 to 2021. Exploiting a staggered Difference-in-Differences approach combined time and cross-city variations in the opening of HSR services, we find that, through traffic and economic re-equilibriums, the HSR contributes to the mitigation of climate change. The opening of HSR significantly reduces carbon emissions by at least 1.74 % on average but with noteworthy spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Consistent with the New Economic Geography, the Four-Vertical-and-Four-Horizontal HSR network demonstrates a prominent heterogeneous spatial distribution of impacts on emissions. We quantitatively reveal the HSR's contribution to climate change mitigation with a saved social carbon cost of no less than $30.97 billion. Given spillovers with heterogeneity, this study provides evidence for transportation planners with an emphasis on tailored line planning for regional balance.
期刊介绍:
Transport Policy is an international journal aimed at bridging the gap between theory and practice in transport. Its subject areas reflect the concerns of policymakers in government, industry, voluntary organisations and the public at large, providing independent, original and rigorous analysis to understand how policy decisions have been taken, monitor their effects, and suggest how they may be improved. The journal treats the transport sector comprehensively, and in the context of other sectors including energy, housing, industry and planning. All modes are covered: land, sea and air; road and rail; public and private; motorised and non-motorised; passenger and freight.