发展高铁有利于碳减排吗?

IF 6.3 2区 工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS
Junjie Zhu, Hongfeng Guo
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究从理论和实证两方面考察了2002 - 2021年高铁开通对中国碳排放总量的因果影响。利用交错差中差方法,结合高铁服务开通的时间和跨城市变化,我们发现,通过交通和经济的再平衡,高铁有助于减缓气候变化。高铁开通显著降低碳排放平均至少1.74%,但存在显著的时空异质性。与新经济地理理论一致的是,四纵四横高铁网络对排放影响的空间分布具有显著的异质性。我们定量揭示了高铁对减缓气候变化的贡献,节省了不少于309.7亿美元的社会碳成本。考虑到具有异质性的溢出效应,本研究为交通规划者提供了证据,重点是为区域平衡量身定制线路规划。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Does the development of high-speed rail benefit carbon emissions reduction?
This study investigates, both theoretically and empirically, the causal impacts of the opening of high-speed rail (HSR) on total carbon emissions in China from 2002 to 2021. Exploiting a staggered Difference-in-Differences approach combined time and cross-city variations in the opening of HSR services, we find that, through traffic and economic re-equilibriums, the HSR contributes to the mitigation of climate change. The opening of HSR significantly reduces carbon emissions by at least 1.74 % on average but with noteworthy spatiotemporal heterogeneity. Consistent with the New Economic Geography, the Four-Vertical-and-Four-Horizontal HSR network demonstrates a prominent heterogeneous spatial distribution of impacts on emissions. We quantitatively reveal the HSR's contribution to climate change mitigation with a saved social carbon cost of no less than $30.97 billion. Given spillovers with heterogeneity, this study provides evidence for transportation planners with an emphasis on tailored line planning for regional balance.
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来源期刊
Transport Policy
Transport Policy Multiple-
CiteScore
12.10
自引率
10.30%
发文量
282
期刊介绍: Transport Policy is an international journal aimed at bridging the gap between theory and practice in transport. Its subject areas reflect the concerns of policymakers in government, industry, voluntary organisations and the public at large, providing independent, original and rigorous analysis to understand how policy decisions have been taken, monitor their effects, and suggest how they may be improved. The journal treats the transport sector comprehensively, and in the context of other sectors including energy, housing, industry and planning. All modes are covered: land, sea and air; road and rail; public and private; motorised and non-motorised; passenger and freight.
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