Insights into the epidemiological characteristics, temporal changepoints, and space-time clusters of foot and mouth disease outbreaks in the SEACFMD region to support eradication efforts

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) remains endemic in several countries across Southeast Asia, China, and Mongolia (SEACFMD region), posing an ongoing threat to livestock and trade. This study aimed to investigate the epidemiological characteristics and analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of FMD outbreaks reported across the SEACFMD region. FMD outbreak and virus lineage data from 2015 to 2023 were utilized. Time series decomposition, changepoint detection, and spatio-temporal clustering using space-time permutation and Poisson space-time models were conducted to identify trends, changepoints, and outbreak clusters. Nine countries reported at least one FMD outbreak during the study period. Changepoint analysis revealed significant temporal shifts, including a peak in 2020, followed by a declining trend towards the end of 2023. The O/ME-SA/PanAsia and O/SEA/Mya-98 lineages were dominant between 2015 and 2018, while O/ME-SA/Ind-2001e became predominant from 2019 onwards, particularly in Vietnam and Thailand, and was linked to the incursion of FMD in Indonesia in 2022. Spatio-temporal analyses identified clusters in Mongolia, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia, Malaysia, and southern China, with the number and size of clusters influenced by model parameters. The findings highlight the dynamic epidemiology of FMD in the SEACFMD region, characterized by the emergence of dominant lineages, fluctuating outbreak trends, and evidence of transboundary spread. These insights support targeted surveillance, timely response, and strengthened regional collaboration to inform the SEACFMD Roadmap 2026–2030.