{"title":"中国25年以上女性乳腺癌负担趋势：基于GBD的连接点回归和年龄-时期-队列分析（1997-2021）","authors":"Yuanyan Tang, Jia Zhu, Zhengren Liu","doi":"10.1080/07357907.2025.2554631","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Breast cancer (BC) is one of the most prevalent malignant tumors among women globally. The incidence and mortality rates of female BC exhibit significant variation across different countries and regions.</p><p><strong>Objective: </strong>This study analyzed the trends of BC among Chinese women from 1997 to 2021 to support evidence-based for the prevention, screening and treatment strategies of female BC in China.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We extracted data on BC incidence, mortality, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs) and years of life lost (YLLs) among Chinese women from 1997 to 2021 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD)database. Join point regression analysis was used to identify the major turning points of disease burden trends, and to calculate the annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC). We applied age-period-cohort (A-P-C) models to separately evaluate the effects of age, period, and cohort on trends in female BC in China.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In 2021, the age standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and DALYs of female BC in China were 37.12 (95% CI: 28.23,46.95) and 281.54(95% CI: 216.87,358.11) per 100,000 women respectively. The AAPC values of the incidence and mortality of female BC were 2.42% (95% CI 2.04-2.80) and -0.49% (95% CI -0.70--0.28) respectively (p < 0.05). A-P-C model indicated that both the rates of incidence, prevalence and deaths increased with age from 1997 to 2021. The period effect analysis revealed that the prevalence and incidence risk of BC peaked between 2015 and 2020, with the highest rate ratio (RR) value 1.28 (95% CI 1.25-1.31) and 1.22 (95% CI 1.19-1.25). The cohort born in 2002 exhibited the lowest risk of mortality and the highest risk of incidence and prevalence.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Over the past 25 years, the large population size and aging population structure in China have led to female BC becoming an important public health issue. Effective preventive strategies and individualized treatment approaches are urgently required to enhance the control of BC in China.</p>","PeriodicalId":9463,"journal":{"name":"Cancer Investigation","volume":" ","pages":"1-13"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9000,"publicationDate":"2025-09-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Trends of Female Breast Cancer Burden in China over 25 Years: A Join Point Regression and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis Based on the GBD (1997-2021).\",\"authors\":\"Yuanyan Tang, Jia Zhu, Zhengren Liu\",\"doi\":\"10.1080/07357907.2025.2554631\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Breast cancer (BC) is one of the most prevalent malignant tumors among women globally. The incidence and mortality rates of female BC exhibit significant variation across different countries and regions.</p><p><strong>Objective: </strong>This study analyzed the trends of BC among Chinese women from 1997 to 2021 to support evidence-based for the prevention, screening and treatment strategies of female BC in China.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We extracted data on BC incidence, mortality, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs) and years of life lost (YLLs) among Chinese women from 1997 to 2021 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD)database. Join point regression analysis was used to identify the major turning points of disease burden trends, and to calculate the annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC). We applied age-period-cohort (A-P-C) models to separately evaluate the effects of age, period, and cohort on trends in female BC in China.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In 2021, the age standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and DALYs of female BC in China were 37.12 (95% CI: 28.23,46.95) and 281.54(95% CI: 216.87,358.11) per 100,000 women respectively. The AAPC values of the incidence and mortality of female BC were 2.42% (95% CI 2.04-2.80) and -0.49% (95% CI -0.70--0.28) respectively (p < 0.05). A-P-C model indicated that both the rates of incidence, prevalence and deaths increased with age from 1997 to 2021. The period effect analysis revealed that the prevalence and incidence risk of BC peaked between 2015 and 2020, with the highest rate ratio (RR) value 1.28 (95% CI 1.25-1.31) and 1.22 (95% CI 1.19-1.25). The cohort born in 2002 exhibited the lowest risk of mortality and the highest risk of incidence and prevalence.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Over the past 25 years, the large population size and aging population structure in China have led to female BC becoming an important public health issue. Effective preventive strategies and individualized treatment approaches are urgently required to enhance the control of BC in China.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":9463,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Cancer Investigation\",\"volume\":\" \",\"pages\":\"1-13\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":1.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-09-05\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Cancer Investigation\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1080/07357907.2025.2554631\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"ONCOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Cancer Investigation","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/07357907.2025.2554631","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ONCOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Trends of Female Breast Cancer Burden in China over 25 Years: A Join Point Regression and Age-Period-Cohort Analysis Based on the GBD (1997-2021).
Background: Breast cancer (BC) is one of the most prevalent malignant tumors among women globally. The incidence and mortality rates of female BC exhibit significant variation across different countries and regions.
Objective: This study analyzed the trends of BC among Chinese women from 1997 to 2021 to support evidence-based for the prevention, screening and treatment strategies of female BC in China.
Methods: We extracted data on BC incidence, mortality, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs) and years of life lost (YLLs) among Chinese women from 1997 to 2021 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD)database. Join point regression analysis was used to identify the major turning points of disease burden trends, and to calculate the annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC). We applied age-period-cohort (A-P-C) models to separately evaluate the effects of age, period, and cohort on trends in female BC in China.
Results: In 2021, the age standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and DALYs of female BC in China were 37.12 (95% CI: 28.23,46.95) and 281.54(95% CI: 216.87,358.11) per 100,000 women respectively. The AAPC values of the incidence and mortality of female BC were 2.42% (95% CI 2.04-2.80) and -0.49% (95% CI -0.70--0.28) respectively (p < 0.05). A-P-C model indicated that both the rates of incidence, prevalence and deaths increased with age from 1997 to 2021. The period effect analysis revealed that the prevalence and incidence risk of BC peaked between 2015 and 2020, with the highest rate ratio (RR) value 1.28 (95% CI 1.25-1.31) and 1.22 (95% CI 1.19-1.25). The cohort born in 2002 exhibited the lowest risk of mortality and the highest risk of incidence and prevalence.
Conclusions: Over the past 25 years, the large population size and aging population structure in China have led to female BC becoming an important public health issue. Effective preventive strategies and individualized treatment approaches are urgently required to enhance the control of BC in China.
期刊介绍：
Cancer Investigation is one of the most highly regarded and recognized journals in the field of basic and clinical oncology. It is designed to give physicians a comprehensive resource on the current state of progress in the cancer field as well as a broad background of reliable information necessary for effective decision making. In addition to presenting original papers of fundamental significance, it also publishes reviews, essays, specialized presentations of controversies, considerations of new technologies and their applications to specific laboratory problems, discussions of public issues, miniseries on major topics, new and experimental drugs and therapies, and an innovative letters to the editor section. One of the unique features of the journal is its departmentalized editorial sections reporting on more than 30 subject categories covering the broad spectrum of specialized areas that together comprise the field of oncology. Edited by leading physicians and research scientists, these sections make Cancer Investigation the prime resource for clinicians seeking to make sense of the sometimes-overwhelming amount of information available throughout the field. In addition to its peer-reviewed clinical research, the journal also features translational studies that bridge the gap between the laboratory and the clinic.
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