使用非均匀泊松过程的污染物超标建模:Medellín和波哥大的案例研究,2018-2020

IF 2.9 4区 环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Biviana Marcela Suárez-Sierra, Karen Melissa Gómez-Montoya, Carlos A. Taimal
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引用次数: 0

摘要

这项工作提出了一种替代方法,用于模拟2018-2020年期间波哥大和Medellín城市三种污染物(\(PM_{2.5}\)、\(PM_{10}\)和臭氧)的国家和国际空气质量标准超标情况。提出的方法基于非齐次泊松过程(NHPP)和贝叶斯参数估计,可以更真实地表示污染事件的时间动态。该模型还纳入了变化点,以确定由于公共政策、气候现象或与COVID-19大流行相关的限制而导致的污染模式的重大变化。这是该方法首次应用于Medellín市的数据,并将结果与波哥大的数据进行了比较。调查结果显示,两个城市在遵守空气质量标准方面存在巨大差异,特别是在将国家标准与世界卫生组织(世卫组织)制定的标准进行比较时。所提出的方法不仅提高了估计的准确性,而且提高了驱动空气污染动态因素的可解释性。除了学术和技术贡献外,本研究还旨在为这两个城市的居民提供可获取的科学证据,提高对长期接触空气污染物所带来的健康风险的认识,并鼓励采取知情行动保护公众健康。
本文章由计算机程序翻译,如有差异,请以英文原文为准。
Pollutants exceedances modeling using non-homogeneous poisson processes: a case study for Medellín and Bogotá, 2018-2020

This work presents an alternative methodology for modeling the exceedances of national and international air quality standards for three pollutants (\(PM_{2.5}\), \(PM_{10}\) and ozone) in the cities of Bogotá and Medellín during the period 2018-2020. The proposed approach is based on Non-Homogeneous Poisson Processes (NHPP) with Bayesian parameter estimation, which allows for a more realistic representation of the temporal dynamics of pollution events. The model also incorporates change-points to identify significant alterations in pollution patterns, attributable to public policy, climatic phenomena, or restrictions related to the COVID-19 pandemic. This is the first time this methodology has been applied to data from the city of Medellín, and the results are compared with those obtained for Bogotá. The findings reveal substantial differences between the two cities in terms of compliance with air quality standards, particularly when comparing national thresholds with those established by the World Health Organization (WHO). The proposed methodology not only improves the accuracy of estimates but also enhances the interpretability of the factors driving air pollution dynamics. In addition to its academic and technical contributions, this study aims to provide accessible scientific evidence for the residents of both cities, raising awareness of the health risks associated with chronic exposure to air pollutants and encouraging informed actions to protect public health.

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来源期刊
Air Quality Atmosphere and Health
Air Quality Atmosphere and Health ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-
CiteScore
8.80
自引率
2.00%
发文量
146
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Air Quality, Atmosphere, and Health is a multidisciplinary journal which, by its very name, illustrates the broad range of work it publishes and which focuses on atmospheric consequences of human activities and their implications for human and ecological health. It offers research papers, critical literature reviews and commentaries, as well as special issues devoted to topical subjects or themes. International in scope, the journal presents papers that inform and stimulate a global readership, as the topic addressed are global in their import. Consequently, we do not encourage submission of papers involving local data that relate to local problems. Unless they demonstrate wide applicability, these are better submitted to national or regional journals. Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health addresses such topics as acid precipitation; airborne particulate matter; air quality monitoring and management; exposure assessment; risk assessment; indoor air quality; atmospheric chemistry; atmospheric modeling and prediction; air pollution climatology; climate change and air quality; air pollution measurement; atmospheric impact assessment; forest-fire emissions; atmospheric science; greenhouse gases; health and ecological effects; clean air technology; regional and global change and satellite measurements. This journal benefits a diverse audience of researchers, public health officials and policy makers addressing problems that call for solutions based in evidence from atmospheric and exposure assessment scientists, epidemiologists, and risk assessors. Publication in the journal affords the opportunity to reach beyond defined disciplinary niches to this broader readership.
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