Biviana Marcela Suárez-Sierra, Karen Melissa Gómez-Montoya, Carlos A. Taimal
{"title":"使用非均匀泊松过程的污染物超标建模:Medellín和波哥大<e:1>的案例研究,2018-2020","authors":"Biviana Marcela Suárez-Sierra, Karen Melissa Gómez-Montoya, Carlos A. Taimal","doi":"10.1007/s11869-025-01762-z","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>This work presents an alternative methodology for modeling the exceedances of national and international air quality standards for three pollutants (<span>\\(PM_{2.5}\\)</span>, <span>\\(PM_{10}\\)</span> and ozone) in the cities of Bogotá and Medellín during the period 2018-2020. The proposed approach is based on Non-Homogeneous Poisson Processes (NHPP) with Bayesian parameter estimation, which allows for a more realistic representation of the temporal dynamics of pollution events. The model also incorporates change-points to identify significant alterations in pollution patterns, attributable to public policy, climatic phenomena, or restrictions related to the COVID-19 pandemic. This is the first time this methodology has been applied to data from the city of Medellín, and the results are compared with those obtained for Bogotá. The findings reveal substantial differences between the two cities in terms of compliance with air quality standards, particularly when comparing national thresholds with those established by the World Health Organization (WHO). The proposed methodology not only improves the accuracy of estimates but also enhances the interpretability of the factors driving air pollution dynamics. In addition to its academic and technical contributions, this study aims to provide accessible scientific evidence for the residents of both cities, raising awareness of the health risks associated with chronic exposure to air pollutants and encouraging informed actions to protect public health.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":49109,"journal":{"name":"Air Quality Atmosphere and Health","volume":"18 8","pages":"2385 - 2404"},"PeriodicalIF":2.9000,"publicationDate":"2025-06-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11869-025-01762-z.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Pollutants exceedances modeling using non-homogeneous poisson processes: a case study for Medellín and Bogotá, 2018-2020\",\"authors\":\"Biviana Marcela Suárez-Sierra, Karen Melissa Gómez-Montoya, Carlos A. Taimal\",\"doi\":\"10.1007/s11869-025-01762-z\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>This work presents an alternative methodology for modeling the exceedances of national and international air quality standards for three pollutants (<span>\\\\(PM_{2.5}\\\\)</span>, <span>\\\\(PM_{10}\\\\)</span> and ozone) in the cities of Bogotá and Medellín during the period 2018-2020. The proposed approach is based on Non-Homogeneous Poisson Processes (NHPP) with Bayesian parameter estimation, which allows for a more realistic representation of the temporal dynamics of pollution events. The model also incorporates change-points to identify significant alterations in pollution patterns, attributable to public policy, climatic phenomena, or restrictions related to the COVID-19 pandemic. This is the first time this methodology has been applied to data from the city of Medellín, and the results are compared with those obtained for Bogotá. The findings reveal substantial differences between the two cities in terms of compliance with air quality standards, particularly when comparing national thresholds with those established by the World Health Organization (WHO). The proposed methodology not only improves the accuracy of estimates but also enhances the interpretability of the factors driving air pollution dynamics. In addition to its academic and technical contributions, this study aims to provide accessible scientific evidence for the residents of both cities, raising awareness of the health risks associated with chronic exposure to air pollutants and encouraging informed actions to protect public health.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":49109,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Air Quality Atmosphere and Health\",\"volume\":\"18 8\",\"pages\":\"2385 - 2404\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":2.9000,\"publicationDate\":\"2025-06-28\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s11869-025-01762-z.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Air Quality Atmosphere and Health\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"93\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11869-025-01762-z\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"环境科学与生态学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Air Quality Atmosphere and Health","FirstCategoryId":"93","ListUrlMain":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11869-025-01762-z","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"环境科学与生态学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
Pollutants exceedances modeling using non-homogeneous poisson processes: a case study for Medellín and Bogotá, 2018-2020
This work presents an alternative methodology for modeling the exceedances of national and international air quality standards for three pollutants (\(PM_{2.5}\), \(PM_{10}\) and ozone) in the cities of Bogotá and Medellín during the period 2018-2020. The proposed approach is based on Non-Homogeneous Poisson Processes (NHPP) with Bayesian parameter estimation, which allows for a more realistic representation of the temporal dynamics of pollution events. The model also incorporates change-points to identify significant alterations in pollution patterns, attributable to public policy, climatic phenomena, or restrictions related to the COVID-19 pandemic. This is the first time this methodology has been applied to data from the city of Medellín, and the results are compared with those obtained for Bogotá. The findings reveal substantial differences between the two cities in terms of compliance with air quality standards, particularly when comparing national thresholds with those established by the World Health Organization (WHO). The proposed methodology not only improves the accuracy of estimates but also enhances the interpretability of the factors driving air pollution dynamics. In addition to its academic and technical contributions, this study aims to provide accessible scientific evidence for the residents of both cities, raising awareness of the health risks associated with chronic exposure to air pollutants and encouraging informed actions to protect public health.
期刊介绍:
Air Quality, Atmosphere, and Health is a multidisciplinary journal which, by its very name, illustrates the broad range of work it publishes and which focuses on atmospheric consequences of human activities and their implications for human and ecological health.
It offers research papers, critical literature reviews and commentaries, as well as special issues devoted to topical subjects or themes.
International in scope, the journal presents papers that inform and stimulate a global readership, as the topic addressed are global in their import. Consequently, we do not encourage submission of papers involving local data that relate to local problems. Unless they demonstrate wide applicability, these are better submitted to national or regional journals.
Air Quality, Atmosphere & Health addresses such topics as acid precipitation; airborne particulate matter; air quality monitoring and management; exposure assessment; risk assessment; indoor air quality; atmospheric chemistry; atmospheric modeling and prediction; air pollution climatology; climate change and air quality; air pollution measurement; atmospheric impact assessment; forest-fire emissions; atmospheric science; greenhouse gases; health and ecological effects; clean air technology; regional and global change and satellite measurements.
This journal benefits a diverse audience of researchers, public health officials and policy makers addressing problems that call for solutions based in evidence from atmospheric and exposure assessment scientists, epidemiologists, and risk assessors. Publication in the journal affords the opportunity to reach beyond defined disciplinary niches to this broader readership.