The half is more than the whole: How China's economic growth target affects forest eco-efficiency

With its command economy legacy, China's economic growth target (EGT) can interfere with the health of forest eco-efficiency (FEE). From the ecosystem services perspective, which categorizes outputs into supply, cultural, and regulating services, this study measures FEE of 30 provinces in China from 2006 to 2019. On this basis, this study empirically analyzes the effect of EGT on FEE using fixed effect and threshold regression models. The relevant results are fourfold. (i) FEE initially exhibits volatility before stabilizing, with Fujian leading in average FEE and Hubei recording the peak value in 2016–2017. (ii) EGT shows inverted U-shaped causality on FEE. (iii) Regulatory, normative, and cognitive mechanisms mediate the impact of EGT on FEE, as posited by institutional force theory, and normative and cognitive forces have the 6.5 % threshold value. (iv) Forests that are under community ownership and in regions with higher marketization demonstrate reduced sensitivity to EGT. The study concludes with strategic recommendations for policymakers to bolster sustainable FEE through targeted reforms to advance promotional objectives, refine property rights structure, and enhance ecosystem service compensation.