A Data-Driven Mathematical Model for Clonorchiasis with Seasonality.

Clonorchiasis is a foodborne disease caused by parasites and transmitted to humans through intermediate hosts. Clonorchis sinensis parasitizes in the bile ducts of human liver and causes organ lesions. The cercariae and metacercaria of Clonorchis sinensis have seasonal variations and may be affected by high water temperature in summer. We formulate a partial differential equations (PDE) model which incorporates seasonality, spatial heterogeneity and the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) of the parasite. We present the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and discuss the global dynamics of the model. Particularly, we choose parameters to fit the Clonorchiasis epidemic data in Guangxi, China. Our study indicates that the basic reproduction number of cases of clonorchiasis in Guangxi is $R_0$ =1.025 and the number of existing infection cases is still very large, if the prevention and control measures of Clonorchiasis are not strengthened.