An approach to variable prioritization in tailings dam failure susceptibility analysis

Mining plays a strategic role in the technological and economic development of many countries; however, its extractive processes involve significant risks, particularly in tailings disposal. In recent years, tailings dam failures have caused severe socio-environmental impacts, intensifying scientific interest in assessing their susceptibility. This study proposes a model for ranking variables associated with dam failure risk using the MCDA-AHP (Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis – Analytic Hierarchy Process) methodology. Four main variables were considered: design, construction, operation, and monitoring, which received weights of 22.58 %, 31.56 %, 25.47 %, and 20.28 %, respectively, based on the AHP method. The model was validated using data from two tailings dams that failed within the past decade, revealing a partial match with the identified high-susceptibility classes. The developed tool, which is open-access, represents an advancement in risk analysis and can inform public policies and management strategies in the mining sector. The results highlight the relevance of AHP as a decision-support tool, contributing to disaster prevention and dam safety.